A tropical depression today will likely turn into a tropical cyclone by Sunday, says WeatherWatch.co.nz.
The storm looks likely to intensify next week into a “severe” tropical storm, meaning it will likely reach Category 3 strength – and even has the potential to reach the top end, Category 5.
Sea surface temperatures in the area the storm is in now are over 30 degrees C with air temperatures around 28C. The sea surface temperatures in northern NZ are warmer than average in the low 20s – meaning the cyclone will weaken as it moves south towards NZ – but may retain a fair amount of energy thanks to the warmer seas.
Full details about risks and tracking can be found in our next video update (which will be out before noon today).