A burst of Australian and subtropical heat is coming to NZ, starting today and easing early Monday, brought in by windy nor’westers which peak in strength on Sunday.

For some eastern areas, such as inland parts of central Hawke’s Bay, the mercury may be closer to 40 degrees if conditions pan out perfectly. Western coastal areas of NZ will be warm, but without the excessive heat. The highest temperatures will be inland and/or leaning to the east.

Following Sunday’s heat, a cooler/colder change moves in, especially for the lower half of the South Island on Sunday night and Monday morning.

Next week more high pressure moves into the NZ area – but we’ll then be monitoring the tropics with a potential tropical cyclone (or depression) around Vanuatu and New Caledonia. While some modelling shows this storm hitting NZ, other models do not – so we will need to wait until Monday next week to lock in with more detail.

MetService may well be issuing not only rain and wind warnings, but excessive heat warnings too.