A cold front and a large area of low pressure will affect the country this weekend, especially on Sunday/Monday as this new low deepens east of New Zealand, dredging up a cold southerly for some too.
While Cyclone Oma no longer poses a direct threat to New Zealand the set up over the next several days will see rain, showers and drizzle in both main islands – but rainfall totals may not be overly high for everyone.
For example, parts of Waikato have the chance of only receiving a small amount of rain. For a time New Zealand was facing the chances of significant rain due to the Oma being in close proximity. Today we do see heavy rain just north of NZ but it won’t be sliding south.
Here are the expected rainfall totals between now and lunchtime next Tuesday. We’ve included both GFS modelling (from America) and ECMWF (from Europe). Next week a large high moves in and likely brings and extended spell of more dry weather.
Rainfall Accumulation Maps from 9am Thursday (today) until 12Noon next Tuesday
on 21/02/2019 1:25am
What this conclusion tells me is-
IBM and super computers are a waste of taxpayers money.
They do little to predict forecasts of weather and best advice is to wait until Mother Nature spills the beans.
She is the boss!!
And no computer or weather service can dispute that conclusion.
on 21/02/2019 2:23am
Hi there. The IBM super computer that tax payers bought was for NIWA and we aren’t allowed to use it. The IBM data we use comes from the most power weather computer in the country and has actually been the most consistent data on our website this week for the weekend’s % of rain. Where the big confusion has come from this week is from the overseas computer models which couldn’t work out if the high over Tasmania would push OMA northwards, or let her drop south. Both options were reasonable so forecasters couldn’t lock anything in. Your taxes fund forecasts at NIWA and MetService, not WeatherWatch – we’re entirely free.
on 21/02/2019 3:29am
WW You do a great job.
I could predict early in the week that the high in the Tasman was going to be the dominant feature and would push Oma back away from NZ – that cost nothing but a view of the weather maps and intuition.
NIWA will do all it can to garner taxpayer $$$ and we see that with their agendas.
WW deserves to use whatever info from anywhere that taxpayers pay for, including the IBM
Keep the great work up