Cyclone Pam is expected to deepen into a severe storm just north of New Zealand with incredibly low air pressure. We are monitoring all the various computer models to find the most likely path. In todayâ€™s video we update you on the likely movements of Pam as cyclone moves towards our north east on Sunday and Monday. We also update you on Nathan â€“ the newly named cyclone near northern Queensland.
on 12/03/2015 12:21am
Hi. We are leaving on mon 16th from syd to Wellington for cruise of South Island voyager of the seas. Should I be worried ??
on 13/03/2015 8:00am
Wellington wont be any windier than it normally is. The cyclone is passing well to the east so you should be good to go.
on 11/03/2015 10:14pm
Would you be interested in writing an article that expands on the difference between a warm centre storm and and a cold centre storm, and how they generate their energy differently?
on 12/03/2015 3:21am
Hi Kieran, basically they both produce similar weather but the energy is spread in different ways. In the tropics they are fuelled by warm waters and warm air, the storms spin very fast in ideal conditions. This is why they get that perfectly round centre – the faster it spins the tighter it forms. Once they reach NZ they run out of warm air/water, and the structure changes to support colder air storms – so you’ll see as the cyclone reaches NZ and moves out to our SE it will start this transition – and will stretch out, spreading the energy much further but not being so central focused. The weather is so much more chaotic around NZ, much stronger air currents around the poles tear the storms into new shapes and formations. Here’s some technical info: http://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Midlatitude_cyclone.html
on 11/03/2015 12:59pm
it has been said that prior to extreme weather all the wildlife dissapear to seek shleter as their “sixth sense” kicks in! So will be observing the birds, ants and hedgehogs lol – as well, of course as your excellent updates!!
on 11/03/2015 9:06am
Hey i want to know if Cyclone Nathan will make it to the Pacific Islands like Fiji and here
in NZ .
I found a article today from Fiji Met Service , they said that in next few weeks of March , there is possibility of another Cyclone .
So i wanted to know is this correct cause i dont really trust Fiji MetService they often give out wrong predictions .
on 11/03/2015 9:10am
Hi there – yes there is some chance of a third cyclone after Nathan, however all the current models suggest it’s not looking too major (at this stage). Keep an eye on Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology too, their Coral Sea outlooks and trackings are very good.
on 11/03/2015 7:13am
I see the lastest release of the Metservice 5 day rain maps show the cyclone’s centre coming ashore in the Bay of Plenty Sunday / early Monday morning. What do you make of this prediction?
on 11/03/2015 7:28am
Thanks for your question – and fair enough too! A few models (including our own here at WeatherWatch.co.nz – which are made from a combination of data out of the US Govt & here in NZ from MetOcean/Weathermap) are now picking the storm to move closer to us, but as Phil says in the video there are several models, and a couple others also show it still east of the country. Last Friday the models were showing a direct hit to the upper North Island – then they all moved it well east…now the models are correcting a bit and pulling it back towards NZ. But with other models still suggesting it may pull east it’s still just a little too early to lock it in and sound the alarms. By Thursday PM, or at the very latest Friday afternoon, we think we’ll have a pretty sure idea as to how close it will get. Certainly Gisborne and East Cape are high risk, as is eastern BOP and northern Hawkes Bay. We’re not willing to add other regions just yet.
We’ll have another video update on Thursday, early afternoon. And on Friday afternoon we hope to have our most detailed update yet covering a few models and charts, we’ll also put the one MetService map in there too, they will often pick one of the international models and go with that (like GFS or ECMWF), but with cyclones especially you should never ever trust just one model/map.