Forecasters in New Zealand, Australia and France will be closely monitoring the developing low near the Solomon Islands with predictions it may reach cyclone status for a time this weekend as it passes near New Caledonia on the way towards northern New Zealand.
Latest data in has both good news and bad for holidaymakers says head weather analyst Philip Duncan. “While there are a number if indications this low will reach storm or cyclone status much of the data still supports this low weakening, or starting to fall apart, just before reaching New Zealand. The bad news is that it might linger for a few days”.
The low isn’t especially large but will be moving over the warm waters of the Coral Sea – a well known breeding ground for tropical storms.
“The low doesn’t have a complicated journey – it’s basically going to sink south from the Solomons to New Zealand over the next four days, which means it will have a shorter life due to it heading directly to cooler waters and air south of the tropics”.
Mr Duncan says the low may bring in some hot, humid, weather for a time too, before southerlies sweep up and clear things up again.
“While we are predicting a storm well north west of New Zealand this weekend it’s still too early to know if any severe weather will be generated here at home next week, which is why we’re asking people to keep up to date with the latest information”.
The highest risk for any windy and wet weather would be Monday to Wednesday next week.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology say the chances of the low becoming a cyclone today is “low” but that goes up to “moderate” across Friday and Saturday.
New Zealand’s MetServive doesn’t provide cyclone outlooks but does suggest a risk, although low at this early stage, for heavy rain across Northland and Auckland on Monday.
WeatherWatch.co.nz will continue to have daily updates on this developing forecast.