A colder change is coming – and so too is a large low which will develop and grow over northern NZ this weekend and through next week. The combination of a large northern low and a southern polar change means heavy rain will turn to heavy snow in some areas – but not for all. Generally speaking the very south of the South Island will have colder, drier, air overall – so even though snow flurries may go down to low levels they may not add up to much. Further north into Canterbury and Marlborough snow may be heavier – but the totals and how low down it goes keeps changing (due to the forecasts of the specific size and placement of the northern low changing slightly each day – which has a big consequence further southwards for the precise placement of rain vs snow and where that will lie).

There are heavy rain risks in both main islands over the next several days – but in saying that, windflows along with our mountains and ranges should make for some large, dry, areas – and some sunshine too. For most places it’s not raining nonstop for a week – but the risks of heavy rain are scattered about.

Keep up to date with MetService severe weather warnings and watches, and their mountain forecasts for updated snow levels over the weekend.