Expect weather forecasts to shift around a bit over the weekend and across next week in some regions as a large low pressure zone engulfs the New Zealand area with thunderstorms, downpours, heavy rain and wind… along with large dry areas, and calm zones too.

Large lows in NZ, especially in Autumn and Winter, are well known for producing instability which can “break” forecasts, with downpours developing quickly out of blue sky, or thunderstorms that are forecast for you eventually developing in a region nearby instead. The larger the low, the more likely this is to happen.

NZ’s mountains and ranges further complicate things. We always strive to be as accurate as we can, but sometimes simply knowing that upcoming forecasts may not be as precise can also be helpful, and we encourage people to closely monitor the rain radar each day over the next several days if wet weather matters to you, because we do expect some local differences to what is generally forecast.

We break down the low moving in, where it may track and how long it might linger around New Zealand for and which regions are currently exposed to severe weather potential.

There are possible severe weather risks in both main islands, but as you will see, not everyone will have rough weather, some may be quite dry with little to notice.