La Nina is likely near the end according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), but tropical lows look likely to remain across the month of March and may still bring further rain into northern NZ and northern Australia in the coming weeks/months. It is the peak of the cyclone season after all.
However, the start of March is certainly kicking off drier in the North Island following two months of relentless storms, flooding and slips. The breather coming up will be noticeable and positive for many northern regions.
But long range, rain still looks to lean above average for the North Island and some parts of the South Island – as the lower South Island remains drier than usual.
We track big highs coming out of the Indian Ocean, south of Australia and into the NZ region, but we’re also seeing much more energy in the Southern Ocean (a classic sign of Autumn developing).
Finally, we take a look at expected rainfall in March – and the trends for Autumn compared to the trends expected at the end of winter and start of Spring later this year… this is when a possible El Nino may develop (which typically encourages more west to south west winds over NZ and more high pressure over the Tasman Sea). El Nino is certainly not locked in – but in our video we show you what the international scientific community is leaning towards with their thinking and forecasts for 2023.
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AIR PRESSURE... How is March shaping up high and low pressure-wise…
UPCOMING EXPECTED RAINFALL
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