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ClimateWatch APRIL ’24 – El Niño is finally fading (Video + 13 Maps)

We are coming to the end of El Niño but as we go through April there may not be any sudden changes as Autumn’s weather pattern is quite similar to a fading El Niño – ie, more westerly driven weather and high pressure zones still exiting Australia.

However the silver lining this month is that we expect more lows and cold fronts mixing into NZ’s weather. It may not bring the relief everyone needs but it will still likely bring some rain around both islands which, over the next 15 days, should bring some relief.

We discuss the set up of El Niño and how we’re transitioning to “Neutral” as we head into the next few months ahead. 

Don’t expect any sudden changes – but more chaos/mess in the forecast usually is better for those in need of rain. We do see more chances this month – but whether or not NZ’s mountains and ranges allow it to line up with your property is another thing. We try our best to tackle that issue.

Temperature-wise we expect a few cold mornings due to the highs rolling through – but the westerly lean to our weather may keep temperatures still leaning above normal for this time of year.

Here’s our April outlook…

El Niño…

The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) model of all models shows El Niño is fading as we go into winter, back to a more neutral weather pattern. This usually means a little more chaos factor in the NZ area.
Breaking down the various global Government Climate Agencies – shows all lean towards El Niño in April, but it’s fading back to “Neutral” pretty quickly.
Global models forecasting El Niño to be gone by winter 2024.

El Niño

As we head towards Spring some global models forecast La Niña to develop…but it’s also worth nothing BoM does not agree, and neither does Meteo (France).


WEEK 1 kicks off (a few days later in our update due to Easter Weekend) with high pressure departing the country and a low coming in to the south with a cold front. This will produce rain for the West Coast but it’s expected to fall apart on April 5 as it moves up the North Island.
WEEK 2 — High pressure dominates the first weekend of April and the second week kicks off with that high still in charge, but exiting – bringing in a warmer sub-tropical northerly for some. But note the large low south of Tasmania – that is likely to drive in some wet weather at the end of the week for parts of the country.
WEEK 3 — The middle of April sees a lot of high pressure around Australia and NZ – but still some low pressure near NZ which has the potential to bring some wet weather. This far out it’s hard to lock in. There is high pressure centred over the South Island and the next high is south west of Perth…this means around Tasmania and the western side of the Tasman Sea there *might* be some chances of wet weather too. But in a nutshell, high pressure is still dominating our weather maps overall.

Credit: Maps powered by Weatherzone, Graphics made by WeatherWatch.


April 3 to April 10 – Departure from Normal. In other words, for this time of year, how much wetter or drier is it than usual. As you can see, much of NZ leans drier still – even with some wet weather in the mix.
Forecast Rainfall – Big Picture. Heaviest rain in white boxes where 150 to 250mm of rain is possible. In the Black boxes the least amount of rain is forecast, between 0 and 15mm.


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