It’s likely a couple of tropical cyclones will form north of New Zealand over the next 10 days as conditions favour development of storms around the Solomon Sea, Coral Sea and also the Pacific between northern NZ and Fiji.
There is some threat to NZ even if confidence levels are currently low at around 25%.
The biggest of the storms looks to be the one furthest from New Zealand, up around the Solomon Sea. Data we trust from various global computer models suggest this one has ‘severe’ potential being in such ideal conditions. The lows that may form closer to New Zealand look significantly weaker but still have the potential for some severe weather, but perhaps more importantly may bring some rain to dry areas.
We’ll keep you posted – we are NOT locking in this forecast yet but as many of you are already seeing the data is appearing on global modelling. We hope to have more details by Thursday. One important point, it’s worth noting that the previous three cyclone threats in the NZ area so far this year have all been stopped from reaching New Zealand due to high pressure. High pressure looks to dominate in our area still, maybe for the rest of March, but there are some cracks showing in this solid belt of pressure and is why we’ve seen some soaking rains in recent days – so anything is possible.
Finally, March is the peak of the South Pacific Cyclone Season, it’s very normal to see tropical storms to our north in March, April and even sometimes May.