The placement of high pressure this Autumn is producing some warmer than usual wind flows – even with southerlies. Sunday’s “cold change” is not looking overly cold when you compare it to the average temperature for this time of year.

While parts of Northern Southand and Central Otago do have a chance of single digit daytime highs on Sunday, which is below average, almost everywhere else in the country will enjoy an average Sunday temperature-wise, or even above it.

Of course, you can still feel cold in warmer than average weather. It simply means we’re above what is normal for now – but that doesn’t mean as human beings it feels warm with some places only having highs in the low to mid teens, plus a windy south to south west wind to boot, it will ‘feel like’ it’s cooler than it is. 

For those in a sunny, sheltered areas to the north, like Gisborne and Whakatane and the Bay of Islands you should have a mostly sunny Sunday with highs between 18 and 20 degrees. Definietly above normal for May 19th by up to 4 degrees.

When you track the origins of the southerly wind flow you can see that it’s actually coming out of Queensland and central Australia, which explains why it’s not a colder southerly flow for New Zealand and why temperatures aren’t really taking a hammering.

The cooler air flow will be more noticeable overnight Sunday and into Monday morning as winds ease further, skies clear more and the colder air can sink and settle better.

– The anticyclonic flow around the large high parked over Sydney means the southerly flow over New Zealand for sunday actually has it’s origins out of the warmer parts of Australia and not the Southern Ocean itself / WeatherWatch.co.nz

– WeatherWatch.co.nz