Low pressure is expected to deepen quickly this weekend near the upper North Island and track just east of the island going into Monday, with the potential for severe weather over the eastern and north-eastern sides of the island. As we discuss in the video, there are a few moving parts for this to all lock into place and there is a chance this low may mostly miss NZ, but other modelling shows both wind and heavy rain may still clip the north-eastern corner of the North Island in particular. We show you the latest tracking and expect to be able to confirm things more by Friday.

Elsewhere we have showers and large dry areas as one large high moves away and the next one tries to move in next week – and it’s between these two highs that this stormy low may develop.

We also have two 7 day rainfall maps to show the “wiggle room” for the potential heavy rain that is currently forecast.