SAMOA – COOK ISLANDS – FRENCH POLYNESIA — The second tropical cyclone of the season MAY form next week based on various computer modelling. A number of you have asked us to focus more on South Pacific storms – so while nothing is locked in yet, we do look at the potential for this forecast low to power up into a tropical cyclone. K

eep in mind the cyclone last month that hit the Cook Islands (Cyclone Wati) was two weeks before the season even started – a sign of El Nino warming sea conditions in that part of the Pacific.

We show what the globe’s two most reliable forecast models say – and show a 15 day South Pacific rainfall animation.

We hope this video gives you some understanding about what is possible – at this stage there is no threat to any nation, but the risk next week for the POTENTIAL of a tropical cyclone is between Samoa and French Polynesia and north of the Cook Islands. Any potential storm here poses no threat to New Zealand, Fiji, Tonga or Australia based on all current forecasts.