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Poll: Are we staring down the barrel of another drought?

As we head into Summer, many anxious farmers and landowners are looking skywards, fingers crossed that we avoid the calamitous events of 2012/13.

The almost nationwide drought devastated huge tracts of farmland, evaporated water supplies, and forced farmers into widespread culling earlier than anticipated – the economic effects of which are still being felt.

Understandably, no-one wants to see that again, but our question is: what are the signs like at your place? Are you getting some de ja vu as Summer draws closer, or is this year looking a lot greener and wetter than last? Let us know by voting, and have your say in the comments below.


Are we looking at another drought?


Ken Ring on 10/11/2013 11:25am

This summer two big heatwaves are coming, but also enough occasional rain to bring relief. Best month December. Wettest: January. Hottest: February. Warm and wet autumn. Farmers will be well pleased with the heat and rain. Northland will suffer 5 months of below average rain starting February, but still get good falls. Marlborough will suffer in January. Christchurch will suffer in the first half of February. No good snow til July. My advice is to take holidays if you can, in second and third weeks in December for what will be the longest dry spell of summer, if you are in the North Island or top of the South Island. Plenty of rain around Xmas and New year but may largely miss Christchurch. Some places e.g. Christchurch will get up to 35C at times during this summer. It will be like the summers of 1994, 1987 and 1974-75

C Johnson on 10/11/2013 9:56am

Vastly different to last year in this neck of the woods. We were so westerly last Spring & Summer that it was causing all sorts of rotation problems thru clashes with the hill winds and troughs. W, WSW, WNW etc. This year is predominantly N and NE and the westerly air is hot; straight westerlies last year were mad and pretty rugged. The NW is pretty much normal, blows like shit thru here. Hate to say it, but the southerly troughs have been missing on a grand scale throughout this winter and spring. We’ve had plenty of rain from the NW and all is very green so I can’t claim drought yet. My vote is leave it to the forecasters, but I am worried about the lack of Southerlies. People saying “yay it’s summer” … no it isn’t. It is way too hot and we had 24C the other day, which is a hot day in Feb for us. That temp saw people swimming in the still freezing Cook Strait waters here. Whatever direction the weather takes .. please weather gods don’t let the anticyclones block and torture us a frigid east wind or drought.

Karl R on 10/11/2013 8:53am

Winter was far to warm and now spring is hotter than usual..summer is going to be like last hot and dry so prepare for it before having to moan about it..

DAVE on 10/11/2013 4:58am

Hi Guys

It is certainly quite hot for this time of the year, 24 in Hamilton last 2 days. Paint was drying as I put in on the wall.

Whilst it is quite dry here I don’t think we will see anything but an average summer. Looks dry for a couple of weeks & then some rain moving in. The tropics are very active so no doubt we will get a few of the sub tropos visiting our shores over the summer. Probably over Xmas New Year when everyone is hoping to have a break.

Keep up the good work boys & keep an eye on the tropics


Guest on 10/11/2013 1:08am

And no, that’s not what the forcasters are for.
Mummy nature will decide whatever.

Ryan on 10/11/2013 12:23am

Its not a drought…. Its called summer! This country will complain regardeless.

Guest on 10/11/2013 1:05am

well technically it is not summer yet and despite the dry months early this year, July, October and now November have been abnormally dry for Auckland.

Ben on 9/11/2013 11:01pm

Just starting to dry out here in Canterbury, could do with a decent drop of rain this week or will start to worry.

Guest on 9/11/2013 10:35pm

The Rainfall for Auckland has been crazy this year.

Going back to December 2012, or that month we had 70mm for that month, and i expect to get that or even more this year. Just looking at the past months the rainfall has not been evenly spread, however well are still near the annual average for Auckland.

here is my personal weather outlook for summer:

Rest of November – Dry warm weather (cooler at night).

December – will start off cool and wet, but quickly becoming very warm and more humid with high over night temperatures. December will be wetter than November.

January – will be a hot and dry month.

February – will start off hot but will slowly start to see the build up of sub-tropical lows arriving – always on a Thursday or a Friday.

March – this month was a hard call, because Easter is happening later in 2014, I will say this month will be dry and warm, much dryer than February.

April – will continue to be warm at the beginning, but will become increasing wet near the end.

May – wet, cool, not cold though.

June – cold with frosts.

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