La Nina is developing but indicators suggest it may not be overly powerful. What does this mean for NZ as we head into summer?

Firstly, we’re noticing a few changes with our weather pattern from previous months.

1. More lows and rainmakers forming in eastern and south eastern Australia (bodes better for NZ as a fair chunk of our weather comes from there – this also highlights what a difference it is to a year ago when this part of Australia was in major drought and serious bush fires).
2. Highs still large, but they are breaking up more with lows in between.
3. High pressure belts drifting further south at times.
4. More lows (mostly weak) forming in the sub-tropics just north of NZ.

The airflows in November look to be quite mild compared to usual with plenty more mild sub-tropical air coming in. Generally speaking New Zealand may climb over 1 degree above normal for November.

This added warmth and humidity may be a positive for dry areas as it increases the risk of afternoon downpours (some with thunder). These downpours, if they form day after day, can create some great localised rainfall totals. The downside? Not everyone gets them.

CURRENT SOIL CONDITIONS:

FUTURE RAINFALL:

NOVEMBER TEMPERATURE TRENDS:

WHERE THE HIGHS AND LOWS WILL LIE OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS:

LA NINA

• RuralWeather.co.nz