UPDATED:

“This is an extreme weather event that has the ability to cause significant flooding and wind damage”

WeatherWatch.co.nz continues it’s live coverage as Wilma, still a powerful category 2 cyclone moves into the upper North Island.

Winds remain sustained over 100km/h with gusts estimated to 150km/h near the centre and a central air pressure of 978hPa.

WeatherWatch.co.nz advises all residents in the Far North and across Northland, particularly eastern areas, to be prepared for a sudden and dramatic increase in wind speeds in the coming hours.

“Wilma is maintaining her strength and is incredibly still classed as a category 2 Tropical Cyclone.  Winds of this speed can fell trees, cut power lines and cause damage to roofs and poorly built structures” says head weather analyst Philip Duncan.

Image / 10pm infrared satellite map shows the centre of Wilma very near north eastern Northland / MetService

Mr Duncan says torrential rain is pushing across Northland and reports are coming in of streams turning into raging torrents.  “This is an extreme weather event that has the ability to cause significant flooding and wind damage to the regions closest to the centre of the low, which will be eastern Northland, Great Barrier Island and East Cape.

However latest models are now showing Wilma may track further east, away from land. “Even a slight movement to the east could be the difference between major wind damage and minor wind damage.  There will be plenty of people in Northland with their fingers crossed that she shifts just a little further east”.

Flooding and Slips
WeatherWatch.co.nz is receiving more reports of slips and flooding in Northland.   “SJ” says “Whareora …continual heavy rain here, Taheke river about to burst its banks.. over road and paddocks…our drive way just about to go under water..and wind picking up.. Tahere Road is under water in places”.

“Didi” says there are lots of reports of flooding around Kerikeri.

“David” says “Kaeos getting battered right now and the road going through is flooding. Slip has closed the road as well. Tide is coming in as well so it may get much worse overnight.”.

WeatherWatch.co.nz believes that while more heavy rain will fall in the coming hours the focus will soon turn to the severe winds.  “As the winds pick up the rain will start to ease and the winds are going to be ferocious for some exposed areas.  It’s likely that some places could receive gusts over 140km/h”.

Mr Duncan says people need to be aware that the winds will not gradually rise – they will hit suddenly and with little warning.  “The entire structure of a tropical cyclone is very different to that of a low that normally crosses over New Zealand.  The winds are only wrappred tightly around the centre, extended out just a couple of hundred kilometres.  It could go from calm to severe gales in just an hour”.

WeatherWatch.co.nz, which has been exclusively monitoring Wilma’s progress since last weekend, says the cyclone may even be stronger than initially predicted and appears to be moving quicker.  

MetService has tonight stepped up their warnings further, you can read them in their entirity below:

Northland In the 8 hours from 8pm Friday to 4am Saturday, expect another 80mm of rain on top of what has already fall, with another 120mm possible about the eastern hills. The heaviest rain is expected tonight, when rates may reach 25 to 40mm per hour. Strong Wind Warning, Areas Affected: Eastern Northland and about theislands of the outer Hauraki Gulf, especially Great Barrier Island Southeast winds are expected to rise to gale this evening and turn gale southwest early Saturday morning, with gusts of 130 km/h likely in exposed places for a time overnight. The southwest gales should ease later Saturday morning.
Issued: 7:51 pm 28 Jan 2011 NZDT

Auckland

Heavy Rain Warning, Areas Affected: Auckland In the 10 hours from 8pm Friday to 6am Saturday, expect another 80mm for many places on top of what has already fall, and another 120mm in northern and eastern areas and the islands of the Gulf. The heaviest falls are expected overnight when rainfall rates may reach 25 to 40mm per hour. Strong Wind Warning, Areas Affected: Eastern Northland and about theislands of the outer Hauraki Gulf, especially Great Barrier Island Southeast winds are expected to rise to gale this evening and turn gale southwest early Saturday morning, with gusts of 130 km/h likely in exposed places for a time overnight. The southwest gales should ease later Saturday morning.
Issued: 7:51 pm 28 Jan 2011 NZDT

Waikato

Heavy Rain Warning, Areas Affected: Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato ( mainly in the east) and Bay of Plenty In the 12 hours from 8pm Friday to 8am Saturday, expect another 80mm in many places on top of what has already fall, with another 150mm possible about parts of Coromandel Peninsula and the ranges of Bay of Plenty, including the Kaimai range. The heaviest falls are expected in the early hours of Saturday morning when rainfall rates may reach 25 to 40mm per hour, especially in Coromandel Peninsula.
Issued: 7:51 pm 28 Jan 2011 NZDT

Coromandel

Heavy Rain Warning, Areas Affected: Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato ( mainly in the east) and Bay of Plenty In the 12 hours from 8pm Friday to 8am Saturday, expect another 80mm in many places on top of what has already fall, with another 150mm possible about parts of Coromandel Peninsula and the ranges of Bay of Plenty, including the Kaimai range. The heaviest falls are expected in the early hours of Saturday morning when rainfall rates may reach 25 to 40mm per hour, especially in Coromandel Peninsula.
Issued: 7:51 pm 28 Jan 2011 NZDT

Bay Of Plenty

Heavy Rain Warning, Areas Affected: Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato ( mainly in the east) and Bay of Plenty In the 12 hours from 8pm Friday to 8am Saturday, expect another 80mm in many places on top of what has already fall, with another 150mm possible about parts of Coromandel Peninsula and the ranges of Bay of Plenty, including the Kaimai range. The heaviest falls are expected in the early hours of Saturday morning when rainfall rates may reach 25 to 40mm per hour, especially in Coromandel Peninsula.
Issued: 7:51 pm 28 Jan 2011 NZDT

Rotorua

Heavy Rain Warning, Areas Affected: Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato ( mainly in the east) and Bay of Plenty In the 12 hours from 8pm Friday to 8am Saturday, expect another 80mm in many places on top of what has already fall, with another 150mm possible about parts of Coromandel Peninsula and the ranges of Bay of Plenty, including the Kaimai range. The heaviest falls are expected in the early hours of Saturday morning when rainfall rates may reach 25 to 40mm per hour, especially in Coromandel Peninsula.
Issued: 7:51 pm 28 Jan 2011 NZDT

Gisborne

Heavy Rain Warning, Areas Affected: Gisborne Heavy rain is expected to spread south this evening, then clear around late morning Saturday. In the 14 hours from 8pm Friday to 10am Saturday, expect 70 to 100mm rain for most places, but 150mm north of Ruatoria. Rainfall rates may reach 25 to 40mm per hour in the north during Saturday morning.