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Less chance of ‘Severe El Niño’ forming – but event still likely

Global forecasting for a severe El Nino weather pattern has been downgraded, due to a large wave of cool water in the eastern Pacific Ocean in February.

Early this year, very warm water in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean led United States atmospheric scientist Paul Roundy to predict a very intense El Nino.

El Nino patterns normally brings very dry conditions in Australia, and flooding rains in the Americas.

“Wind conditions in May and June, and early passage of the big oceanic Kelvin wave during February through April, led to loss of a large volume of warm water on the equator before your winter, thereby reducing chances for a major El Nino event this year,” Dr Roundy said.

“However, conditions right now are roughly consistent with conditions during late October of 1986 (which was a late starter).”

Dr Roundy says strong westerly winds over the next few weeks, keeping waters warm in the Pacific Ocean, would make an El Nino more likely.

“There isn’t so much potential for a major event like there was in the spring.

“But I still think the potential for an El Nino event is greater than 60-65 per cent.

“The chances of a major event are lower, but a moderate event remains possible.”

– Weatherzone/ABC


Guest on 11/10/2014 11:40am

Meterologists say they cannot predict more than a week or so ahead. If they are telling the truth then he was guesing then and is still guessing. It is why he was wrong then and still wrong. The moon drives the currents that monitor the El Nino reversal. It is a regular cyclic beat. There is absolutely no chance of El Nino before next autumn, as my website and Yahoo articles have been saying all year.

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