The Tasman Sea area looks about as busy as the Southern Ocean with low after low forming there and crossing NZ in the coming week and a half.
WeatherWatch.co.nz says about half a dozen areas of low pressure will form either over the Tasman Sea or near NZ over the next 10 days bringing bursts of rain and wind across the country. Not all lows are stormy, but at least three produce some severe weather risks in both islands.
The set up means remaining dry parts of the North Island will likely disappear and more places will be “wetter” rather than “drier” underfoot. For dry Canterbury wetter weather this weekend and next week will be welcome, with 25 to 40mm possible over the coming week. Canterbury is currently NZ’s driest region, compared to average for this time of year.
For the lower South Island it also means true mid-winter weather on the way with a large high pressure zone later this week also helping contribute some very cold air (coupled with a large low moving in from the west). With the exception of today’s high being 12 degrees, most daytime highs in Southland for the next several days ahead will be around +5C to +9C with overnight lows around freezing.
Snow is also in the mix this weekend for some South Island areas, although nothing too significant low down (below 200m) is yet forecast, according to WeatherWatch.co.nz and IBM data.
For northern NZ the sometimes mild airflows pulled out of the Tasman Sea or sub-tropics may mix with colder air moving in from the south, producing isolated thunderstorms next week – and/or pockets of heavy rain.
WeatherWatch.co.nz says this winter pattern is the most unsettled the North Island has seen in half a decade, following on from five years of general rainfall deficit across the top half of the island.
While La Nina has officially ended, conditions remain La-Nina-like, so it’s not surprising at all that we’re likely to see the Coral Sea zone and areas north of NZ helping to produce rainmakers in the weeks ahead also.
SOME OF THE MAIN LOWS COMING UP…
THE RAIN MAPS…