Tropical Cyclone MAL becomes returns to Category 2 storm as leaves FIJI, heads to Raoul Island

2:20pm Wednesday NZDT / 1:30pm FIJI –— Tropical Cyclone Mal brushed past Fiji this morning along the western side of the largest island (Viti Levu) as a Severe Category 3 storm.

Despite the strengthening to a severe storm in the early hours, MAL was tracking offshore to the west – sparing much of Fiji from the storm’s worst weather.

As of mid afternoon Wednesday the Fiji Met Service had dropped the storm back to Category 2, as it tracks southwards and will now weaken and fall apart in the days ahead.

Here is the latest from our weather news desk and our weather video from Tuesday – worth noting that tracking for MAL has changed very little since the video was recorded yesterday. Sadly we have no video update today due to a significant power cut where our studio is. Power has been restored now so we’ll be back on Thursday.

This is our final update on this specific page for Cyclone Mal.

🚨🌀Tropical #CycloneMal has returned to Category2️⃣ this afternoon as it clears away from #Fiji to the south.🇫🇯

🇳🇿Next stop: New Zealand's #RaoulIsland as the storm continues to weaken and fall apart over the coming days. There is no threat to the North Island.#TCMal pic.twitter.com/8Goq1MCHtq
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 15, 2023

🚨🌀Severe Category3️⃣ Tropical #CycloneMal is swiping the south western corner of #Fiji right now.

However it's fair to say (based on the maps at least) that Fiji has dodged a bullet for the most part. #MAL

Current situation:
🇳🇿8:30am NZDT
🇫🇯7:30am FIJI pic.twitter.com/yZ8cyhViZT
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 14, 2023

🌀📡Latest rain radar loop from Fiji Met Service for Severe Category 3 Tropical Cyclone #MAL.#FIJI 🇫🇯 pic.twitter.com/dQhgwJ7cNP
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 14, 2023

⚠️🌀💨Despite #CycloneMal finally reaching severe Category3️⃣ status overnight, the centre of the storm has remained offshore to the west.

Here's the next 6 hour wind projection, as the sun rises shortly over #Fiji. pic.twitter.com/bQ3iNgclRD
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 14, 2023

⚠️Latest data suggests the worst of the winds may remain offshore after dawn, but damaging gusts are still expected in western #VitiLevu before then. Tropical cyclones can wobble/jog sideways suddenly, so very high risk remains for now.

Wind map for:
🇫🇯6:30am FIJI
🇳🇿7:30am NZDT pic.twitter.com/NmTXWSDJoY
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 14, 2023

🚨🌀#Breaking: #CycloneMal becomes "Severe" Category3️⃣ just west of Fiji this morning.

The good news is that it's mostly offshore (from the most damaging winds point of view) from Nadi and Viti Levu. pic.twitter.com/GDjUGYklpX
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 14, 2023

🚨🌀🌪️🇫🇯Here's the next 6 hour high resolution wind projection for the core/centre of #CycloneMal. Our high resolution data is powered by IBM. It's a close call for #Nadi westwards. We'll update this wind animation again after midnight.https://t.co/gb7E1quzdb pic.twitter.com/5HkDTKV0xV
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 14, 2023

2, 3 or not to three? That is the question this evening as #CycloneMal continues to strengthen but remains Category 2 at the time of this post. Fiji MetService still expects Severe Cat 3 overnight.

🌀📡The core of #MAL now showing up on Fiji Rain Radar: https://t.co/cUcUcKgsQK pic.twitter.com/ec8BIwmfpH
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 14, 2023

🌀🌪️💨Tracking Tropical Cyclone #MAL's winds up to midnight tonight using high resolution data. #Fiji 🇫🇯

(Time stamp is NZDT, -1 hour for Fiji Time).

🕙We'll update again later this evening on the tracking of the most damaging inner circle of winds from #TCMal. pic.twitter.com/GT7wQAcOWp
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 14, 2023

🚨🇫🇯🌀💧Next 48 hours rainfall over #Fiji (from the Australian model) showing 150mm+ over the northern ranges of #VitiLevu.⚠️Rainfall may go higher, follow official warnings from @FJMETservice.

One positive in the modelling is that #TCMal is expected to track by fairly quickly. pic.twitter.com/ts4VpIqUat
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 14, 2023

🌀☄️#Mal looks like a #meteor burning through the atmosphere over the next week ahead!

🎥This animation shows Tropical Cyclone #MAL as it moves through the tropics, enters the sub-tropics and falls apart over the next 8 days as it runs into colder conditions and high pressure. pic.twitter.com/Uw7BJ9NrVI
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 14, 2023

Tropical Cyclone #MAL continues to strengthen, with "Severe" Category 3 expected in the coming hours as it approaches #FIJI from the north-west (tracking SE). It's possible winds at centre may reach 140km/h, gusting 170. For now, worst winds still look to be offshore to the west. pic.twitter.com/8XpbBUfPYH
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) November 14, 2023

The latest tracking does show the centre of Mal hopefully tracking further west of Viti Levu. As our video says, it may still make a more direct hit and those in Fiji should pay very close attention to the Fiji Met Service and other weather providers across Tuesday and Wednesday.

The storm exits Fiji on Wednesday and may bring extra humidity and dangerous seas to around Tonga. Otherwise Mal should fall apart north of NZ.

Elsewhere and the tropics aren’t too active or stormy in the next 7 days ahead – but the Northern Hemisphere is showing signs of more life than previous months.

And we have a 7 Day Rainfall Map for the entire Pacific region – to help work out where the heaviest rain and cyclones will track.

North Island

South Island

North Island

South Island