We have two lows impacting New Zealand over the next 6 days but rainfall totals for those in the very north and east may still be quite small.
Rain will be heavy on the West Coast and potentially again next week through central NZ.
On Saturday winds will also surge up with gales in some exposed South Island and lower North Island areas – before easing again Sunday. We’ve got your forecast covered out until next Wednesday…
on 18/11/2020 11:40pm
Great to hear you again Phil I’ve really missed you on Country TV nobody does a better rual forcast than WW.
on 19/11/2020 12:11am
Hey thanks Ray, I really appreciate that. Aaron Wilkinson is doing a great job on CountryTV as my fulltime replacement. We’re also writing the forecasts for CountryTV (in fact I’m doing it for the rest of this year!). Thanks for the support – we’ll be making more rural content next year too! 🙂
– Phil D
on 18/11/2020 10:15pm
just wondering your reasoning behind you saying the southern ocean may be more stormier than usual this summer? I thought La Niña typically brought the opposite, with the southern ocean going to sleep as high pressure moves south.
on 18/11/2020 10:22pm
Hi Ben, thanks for the question. It’s all to do with the Polar Vortex…its basically a bit ‘loose’ this summer and that means more storms in the southern Ocean. La Nina is measured at the equator north of NZ and is seperate to this… it’s a little confusing, as we don’t normally have to think about both. This La Nina is also only a moderate one – so it may not have too much impact on NZ. Time will tell but for now, other than Napier’s flooding, we haven’t seen too much change into a La Nina weather pattern.
on 19/11/2020 12:39am
Hi, Phil. I assume the Polar Vortex and the Southern Annual Mode (SAM) are one and the same thing? When the Polar Vortex is “loose” is the SAM in a positive or negative phase? I can never remember! Regards, Damian Fischer.
on 19/11/2020 1:42am
Hi Damian, yep correct. 🙂 This is from BoM in Aussie: “The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently positive and is expected to remain so at least into late 2020. La Niña tends to favour positive SAM during spring and summer, further supporting the likelihood of above average rainfall in eastern Australia”.