Yep on the sat map looks very much to the east, but we think the low will curve back more towards the upper NI over the next 48 hours – there is a huge blocking high hard up to the east of Evan, so it can’t move much further east than it is now.

Cheers

Phil

The models are changing over and over. In fact the European one (ECMWF) has picked the Tasman the entire time.  GFS (American) picked it going just east of Hawkes Bay.  Weathermap – based in New Zealand – use GFS but also their own local data, which saw a more sensible ‘half way’ prediction – basically in the middle of the two models – which is the North Island pretty much.

All the models are flip flopping on where Evan’s remnants go AFTER Christmas Day – but regardless its still a pretty similar forecast for NZ. 

Unsure where MetService get their modelling from – we don’t use it.  We use the three mentioned above along with JTWC (but only for cyclones).

Modelling can be wildly changeable especially when you go beyond 5 days…so the forecaster who uses them must know which ones to trust – and when to not trust them. 

It has the potential to go into the Tasman or the Pacific – like an egg on a rooftop, so is this low on the top of NZ!

– Phil