Ideal conditions in the tropics is now creating large areas of low pressure with storm and cyclone potential in at least two areas over the coming 10 days.
As WeatherWatch.co.nz exclusively first forecast on both Jan 29 [February Tropics Alert: Cyclone potential north of NZ) and Jan 31 (Tropics looking highly active in mid February) the chance for tropical storms and even a cyclone or two was much more likely around the middle of February.
Despite the tropical unrest there is still currently no direct threat to New Zealand – but the stormy tropical conditions will impact our weather, perhaps in a positive way to begin with as showers and the odd downpour start to move in to dry parts of northern NZ in the new east to NE flow.
There are three bursts of tropical weather worth monitoring
Once again – no direct threat to New Zealand by a tropical storm but our weather does look to be influenced by the tropical unrest developing. We’ll track the systems in detail across next week at WeatherWatch.co.nz. With them so nearby slight changes may have bigger impacts on the New Zealand area.
TROPICAL RISK AREAS (to match 1, 2 & 3 above):
1) This Sunday/Monday tracking east of NZ, may bring rain to East Cape, Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay and brisk easterlies to some exposed areas. Not a storm at this stage.
2) A possible tropical storm or even cyclone a week from now north of New Zealand around New Caledonia. Long range data WeatherWatch.co.nz finds reliable suggests this low will linger in this area and slowly weaken next weekend – but may well influence our weather in the north with humidty, some rain and bigger swells.
3) Very long range data (so definitely not locked in) but GFS data from America shows a possible Severe Tropical Cyclone north of NZ two weeks from now (Feb 22). The intensity and precise location will likely shift in the days ahead. We’ll keep you posted. Long range forecasts beyond 10 days can be quite changeable but these images are in the public domain so we wanted to comment on them. Those in Fiji, Tonga, Samoa and Vanuatu should monitor the development of this potential storm system in the week ahead too.
– WeatherWatch.co.nz Exclusive