Conditions continue to deteriorate north of New Zealand with two tropical storms simultaneously developing side by side. Despite the danger to the South Pacific there is good news – both storms look set to miss most populated places, although New Caledonia is somewhat exposed to the Coral Sea storm.
As for New Zealand, the latest guidance suggests both lows may help deliver plenty of tropical energy – combining with a southerly front it could create a new, larger, low pressure system right over New Zealand midway through next week.
This may create a large pool of low pressure with a fair bit of energy around it – but that still doesn’t mean severe weather, it just may mean more parts of the nation are exposed to downpours or wind at some point…rather than sunny summer weather.
Either way, these two lows are likely to not only affect our beaches and seas, but help alter the weather pattern around the country for next week. There could be a burst of tropical humidity – then heavy downpours across parts of New Zealand. A cooler south west change looks set to sweep through end of next week and into the weekend.
Here are the latest track maps from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center:
on 11/02/2016 10:04am
we are having a beach wedding in the coromandel 20th feb (should we be worried? ) there is no plan b
on 11/02/2016 3:26pm
20th Feb is over a week away and plenty can happen between now and then, in saying that hopefully by then any inclemant weather should have passed and we may be looking at more anticyclonic conditions around then. So hopefully settled around then in your case.
Feel free to keep an eye on our maps if you like: http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/forecast-maps/rain
– WW Team
on 11/02/2016 6:19am
Hi Phil Any chance in your opinion that Winston will start interacting with the other developing tropical depression, I.e the Fujiwara Effect, whereby start a a clockwise rotation around each other and thereby steering Winston on a more southerly track towards NZ? Look forward hearing from you. Pieter
on 11/02/2016 7:45am
Thanks for your question! Yes that is possible but probably unlikely. There seems to be too much distance between the two and just not the right set up – they are quite independent, at least for the next few days. However it does look as though a large area of low pressure will come out of this – exactly where is yet to be settled (probably over NZ, but may be north of us too). Hopefully our confidence tomorrow will be a bit more concrete on what is likely to happen next week.
on 11/02/2016 3:30am
As they will all go out gisborne way wont they like the last two
on 11/02/2016 1:34am
Typical we are going on a two week holiday starting monday because the weather is normally more settled 🙁 Really hope we get some nice beach weather.