The Outlook!
1pm Update (final update for the day – for further updates for Auckland go to our Auckland weather forecast on the homepage)
The area of showers has completely stalled over Auckland meaning conditions remain a bit unsettled.
It’s a rare event and as luck would have it, it falls on this one particular day.
Systems like this are almost impossible to predict very far in advance simply because they are so small and localised. It’s small in the big weather picture, but affects a densely populated area. So while showers are clearing everywhere else, Auckland may be stuck with this patchy showers for the rest of the afternoon, especially northern and eastern areas up to Orewa.
In the last hour the area of showers has grown – and that’s a good thing. It’s spreading the moisture over a greater area meaning big dry patches are opening up in between
Latest Valentines Day Forecast
Northland – Easterlies may be a bit gusty – dry for most places, a few showers nearer to Auckland.
Auckland – Overcast with some showers in the north and east. Long dry patches developing too. (we hope!)
Waikato – A few showers west of Morrinsville, clearing this afternoon,
Rest of the North Island: Mostly sunny with windy south easterlies around Wellington. noon. If there is a remaining shower anywhere else they should also ease by noon. Highs in the low 20s for most places, thanks to that cooler sou’easter. The sun will still pack a punch though!
South Island: Colder and dry but could be often cloudy in the south and east. Temperatures in the mid teens for the South, upper teens for Canterbury, mid 20s for the north and low 20s for the west. A possible morning shower in the east will burn off fast.
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Mandeno Moments on 13/02/2009 10:19pm
Hi there. I’m very glad to see that you’ve bought out an Auckland forecast: I find your forecasts so much more useful that the government service which simply does not give enough information.
E.g., I was hoping to go on a photographic trip this afternoon and do some candid/street work, which you need good weather for (there’s a lot less people about in the rain). Today looked like a dead loss until I read your forecast and I can now plan my day accordingly.
If you’d like to see some examples of the type of photography that I’m talking about go to http://mandenomoments.zenfolio.com/kohimarama22-12-08
**********************
I do have one suggestion. I understand that the Auckland forecast uses a Humidex temperature calculation: perhaps it would pay to put a brief explanatory note at the bottom of each forecast. I’d also be interested to see a Humidex number and a conventional number for each day.
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WW Forecast Team on 13/02/2009 11:48pm
Today is a bit like a forecasters nightmare! This small area of patchy rain has now stalled – none of the computer models we use predicted this. Our forecast for Auckland is the most up to date right now and sadly it appears this patchy rain isn’t going anywhere fast.
As far as the humidex reading goes, yes, overseas they place the reading next to every forecast during Summer – and in winter add a wind chill. Because we’ve only just set this up that’s hopefully further down the track. In the meantime, we’ll add it when it’s relevant! Good luck with the photos – hopefully some dry patches means you can still work?
Philip Duncan
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Mandeno Moments on 14/02/2009 12:24am
I can still work in the rain and in fact some of the best photos can be had in foul weather (you might remember the photo linked to below, taken in an extreme storm last year), but it’s a hassle keeping gear dry and, as I say, there aren’t so many people about.
On the other hand, you get nice soft light and photos with a difference (because most photographers stay home in foul weather). Times of transition when the rain stops or starts can provide superb lighting.
I won’t start shooting until late afternoon when the light is better and perhaps the rain will have started to move on by then.
http://mandenomoments.zenfolio.com/p580226271/e29114fab
If you’re interested in quick-and-simple photographic tips I’ve just started a photoblog that includes those:
http://mandenomoments.wordpress.com/
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Leemelon on 13/02/2009 9:11pm
Thnaks for the reassuring news on the weather in Aucklnad. We are having a party at 2pm, so will look frorward to some better weather by then. i’ve just told my daughter, whose party it is, and she said “Yes”.
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WW Forecast Team on 13/02/2009 11:51pm
3:20pm Update: Showers falling apart now which is great news for you. Cold sou’easters though…only around 16 – 18 degrees across the city.
Cheers
Philip Duncan
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Sara Calman on 11/02/2009 8:16am
On Valentines if my other half forgets again I am forecasting severe lightening strikes for my region!
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WW Forecast Team on 12/02/2009 3:15am
Hi Sara,
Let’s hope there’s no thunder to boot!!
WeatherWatch team
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