Computer models continue to pick a slightly eastern track for Cyclone Pam when it approaches us late on Sunday and early next week – however it is cetainly going to be a ‘very close call’ as it brushes our north east late Sunday and into Monday.
We will have a detailed video update on Friday afternoon with the latest for the weekend.
But for today we’re going to focus on the maps and tracks provided by various agencies around New Zealand and the world.
(Please note – the ‘Category 6’ indicated just south east of Vila is a typo by the Fiji Met Service. The scale only goes to 5)
Above – FIJI MET SERVICE
ABOVE – JTWC (US Govt)
ABOVE – ECMWF wind map for Monday (Europe)
VIEW ALL OUR MAPS HERE – wind, swells, rain, sea temps, satellite: http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/maps
Homepage image / The current wind map for Sunday morning / Weathermap
on 12/03/2015 3:21pm
The likely hood of that i think would be SLIM………. i exspect it to change course at the last minute…disasters do not happen in the same place TWICEfkthu
on 12/03/2015 2:46am
I have noticed there is a inconsistency between the offshore swell charts and what is being forecast inshore, I know there is depletion of swell as it move in but there is a real gap. For example the eastern part of the BOP should recieve a direct north hit from the swell, which is showing to be around 20-25ft (big swell) yet inshore forecasts are only showing around 4-6ft, why is this? I get the feeling that inshore models are out of touch at the moment, one well known forecaster is claiming that this swell could be 15ft bigger and have a 5 second longer swell period, than Cyclone Ivy, which saw surfing in the Firth of Thames. The low will be super close to NZ so I imagine charts will jump at the last minute, can you explain the gap between the charts?
on 11/03/2015 10:00pm
There is still quite a lot of variation Phil, in real terms a couple of hundred miles seperation. That is quite a bit really in terms of likely wind speed.
It will be interesting to see the final outcome. Observation over quite a long period of time suggests to me that Weathermap will most likely get it right along with JTWC.
Timing looks later than originally predicted don’t you think? It is moving very slowly at present.
on 12/03/2015 2:57am
Hi Dave – yes quite a bit of variation, so best thinking is usually to find the middle ground. Should zip past on Sunday night then slow down on Tuesday east of NZ… and the middle ground between all the likely models still has it just off our east coast (but certainly close enough to brush us with some severe weather in the north east, particularly Gisborne, eastern BOP and northern Hawkes Bay at this stage). Wind and rough seas look to be the main features for NZ at this stage.
Our weather video tomorrow will be more detailed about possible tracking and severe weather risks.
on 12/03/2015 9:36am
I could be wrong but has changed direction and is going to stick around for a bit. My computer tracking system has it there and it is getting stronger….