The likely hood of that i think would be SLIM………. i exspect it to change course at the last minute…disasters do not happen in the same place TWICEfkthu

Hi Guys

I have noticed there is a inconsistency between the offshore swell charts and what is being forecast inshore, I know there is depletion of swell as it move in but there is a real gap. For example the eastern part of the BOP should recieve a direct north hit from the swell, which is showing to be around 20-25ft (big swell) yet inshore forecasts are only showing around 4-6ft, why is this? I get the feeling that inshore models are out of touch at the moment, one well known forecaster is claiming that this swell could be 15ft bigger and have a 5 second longer swell period, than Cyclone Ivy, which saw surfing in the Firth of Thames. The low will be super close to NZ so I imagine charts will jump at the last minute, can you explain the gap between the charts?

There is still quite a lot of variation Phil, in real terms a couple of hundred miles seperation. That is quite a bit really in terms of likely wind speed.

It will be interesting to see the final outcome. Observation over quite a long period of time suggests to me that Weathermap will most likely get it right along with JTWC.

Timing looks later than originally predicted don’t you think? It is moving very slowly at present.

Cheers Dave