The first week of winter, which kicks off here on Queens Birthday Monday, looks set to start on a relatively mild note with a northerly flow and a Tasman Sea low moving in.
WeatherWatch.co.nz says temperatures will be warmer for the first week of Winter than the last week of Autumn.
The meteorological start to winter is on June 1st.
The astronomical start to winter is based on the winter solstice (day with the least amount of available sunlight, or what we call “the shortest day”) which this year for New Zealand is on June 22nd.
Either way, the weather pattern is now showing signs of more wintry changes and less summer-like ones… in other words, things seem to be running to schedule for late May early June.
After the shortest day has passed (June 22nd) that’s when the six coldest weeks of the year usually move in.
So it’s not surprising that the first week of June is mild – the Autumn weather pattern is now fading, but hasn’t gone.
Long range maps still very much show an Autumn weather pattern continuing: By that we mean dry and mild one day – colder, windier and wetter the next.
But the colder weather is ‘showing up on the radar’ more often now in our long range modelling.
As we head into June WeatherWatch.co.nz sees a chance for more polar southerlies within the first two weeks. It’s too early to lock in – but at this stage it looks as though June is shaping up to produce fairly typical weather…which means more rain in the west, more winds in the east and Cook Strait area, and the chance of another snowy snap.
We’ll have a detailed June forecast out this long weekend and WeatherWatch.co.nz will look at any snow risk potential with more focus.