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February’s Weather Pattern: A few slight changes coming for NZ plus 14 day expected rainfall Map

February is almost here and many are asking what the weather will do. has been looking at the various computer models and our forecast is for this current pattern to continue – but with a few slight changes.

What stays the same?

  • The high pressure systems (anticyclones) coming in from Australia continue.
  • The drier than average weather pattern continues for most
  • The warmer than average weather continues – but still with the odd cooler day

What is changing?

  • The anticyclones drop a little further south, giving more protection to the South Island and hopefully warmer, drier, more summer-like weather for those who have missed out.
  • An uptick in easterly quarter winds for the upper North Island (and fewer sou’west days hopefully).
  • The tropics wakes up north of NZ in February.

The two main highlights in the above ‘What is changing’ section are that the anticyclones are slipping a little further south and the tropics are waking up north of NZ. So far the tropics have been very active around northern Australia and off to our north east out around Tonga etc, but very sleepy directly north of New Zealand. However by mid Feb there will be lows directly north of us. At this stage none are forecast to directly hit NZ but these lows may start to impact the NZ area more-so in Feb and is worth monitoring as they drift and form closer to land.

The other highlight is the more southern track of the anticyclones/highs. It’s only a slight change, but it gives the lower South Island perhaps more sunny/dry days than they have had lately – while at the same time it allows the rainmakers in the tropics to get a little closer to northern New Zealand. 

Many areas, especially the North Island, look dry coming up. In fact some areas like Auckland may only have 5mm over the next couple of weeks. Same goes for Waikato, Northland, Nelson, Marlborough and North Canterbury

RAINFALL ACCUMULATION MAP (ie, how much rain is expected across NZ over the next 2 weeks).

– GFS / US Government



Guest on 29/01/2019 9:22pm

On the basis that its al about me……

We have a long awaited holiday in the sounds from Waitangi day for a fortnight
Any idea what we can expect
It would be nice to see some sunny days

Thanks for your reply

WW Forecast Team on 29/01/2019 9:37pm

Hi there, Waitangi Day itself may see a few showers but the long range forecast bodes well for you and there should be plenty of hot, dry, sunny days. Have a great break 🙂


Guest on 28/01/2019 10:59pm

Hi — You have great site with more than accurate information. Thank you. How do you see the Long Term Rain forecast for Northland — lovely and sunny here but bone dry in most places …………

WW Forecast Team on 29/01/2019 2:34am

Hi and thanks very much, very kind. Long range for Northland looks drier than average, we don’t expect more than 10 to 20mm over the next week or two and some may only have 1 to 5mm, if that. However the tropics are waking up, so there may be a change coming in mid to late February, but for now it’s the same mostly dry weather pattern. We may see easterlies next week in Northland too, which is the opposite from what we’ve been getting lately – so it may bring in a few showers and some extra humidity.

Phil Duncan

Guest on 28/01/2019 4:19am

the weather doesn’t take holidays so why does country tv you will never compete with the metservice with that poor service

WW Forecast Team on 28/01/2019 4:25am

Hi there, you’ll need to contact CountryTV about how they choose to programme their channel, we have no impact over it. Our website however did have rolling weather news coverage today, unlike MetService, and also unlike MetService the website is free of charge to you as a taxpayer.

Kind regards

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