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El Niño now ‘70% likely’ this year – BoM

The Bureau of Meteorology says there is now a 70 per cent chance of an El Nino developing later this year.

The pattern generally leads to below average rain.

However, the Bureau of Meteorology’s shorter term seasonal outlooks predict a wetter few months before an El Nino might take hold from around June.

Bureau climatologist Dr Andrew Watkins said El Ninos do not always mean drought.

“For instance, the 1997-98 El Nino was considered by scientists as being the strongest one we’ve ever seen,” he said.

“For Australia, though, it had relatively mild impacts, and in fact we saw stronger impacts, say, in the El Nino of 2006-07, which actually was a relatively weak event.

“So you’re not guaranteed less rain just because of an El Nino, but it does increase the odds.”

– Weatherzone/ABC

Comments

Guest on 16/04/2015 10:01pm

Where are they!!!!!!! we just getting enough rain thats all and cold the last thing farmers need……WELCOME TO HELL!!!!!!

WW Forecast Team on 16/04/2015 11:48pm

Global scientists have been forecasting El Nino for over 15 months and it still hasn’t arrived. I wouldn’t get too concerned just yet. 🙂

Cheers

WW

Guest on 16/04/2015 9:54am

Hi WW, Does El Nino mean we are in for a colder wnter?

Thanks

WW Forecast Team on 16/04/2015 11:48pm

If it arrives – keep in mind the scientific community has been predicting this for the past 15 months….

It could be colder than usual, but El Nino can produce more westerlies, drier weather in the east – and increases the chance of a decent southerly blast.

But like we say – they forecast with higher confidence 15 months ago that we’d get this for summer…and it never arrived.

Cheers

WW

Guest on 16/04/2015 1:36am

Hence the latest cold weather……..So arent we going to get anyvsmpa decent rain this year!!!!!!!!!!

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