Cyclone Hola has formed this morning near Vanuatu and is a category 1 tropical cyclone. Central air pressure is 994hPa.
Hola is moving south west at 8 knots and is intensifying over sea surface temperatures of 28 to 30 degrees Celsius.
Forecasts today from both Fiji and Vanuatu Met Services say the storm will reach Category 2 status by tomorrow. WeatherWatch.co.nz says Vanuatu will have heavy rain across today, damaging winds (at the lower end of the scale) and coastal conditions will become rough, especially to the west of the nation in the days ahead as Hola deepens.
As for international modelling for New Zealand, overnight ECMWF (Europe) has placed Hola tracking further west into northern New Zealand or even the Tasman Sea while GFS (America) remains consistent showing the storm will track past East Cape on Monday. It remains one to watch for New Zealand but for the next few days it will be Vanuatu and New Caledonia most exposed to Cyclone Hola.
– Future Tracking by JTWC
– Current and future Tracking by Fiji Met
– Current and future tracking by Vanuatu Met
– Position as of 7am Wednesday – Earth.nullschool.net
on 6/03/2018 7:37pm
Certainly one to watch. It is interesting that the main two models are so far apart this time, although it does seem to be generally predicted that it will head this way.
The steering ridge will determine the outcome I guess
It won’t be pretty if the more western path is what happens that is for sure