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Cyclone Carlos downgraded…for now


The tropics between western Australia and Samoa are now in full swing with two tropical storms currently active and another one about to develop north of New Zealand this weekend predicts

As of 2:15pm Thursday ex-cyclone Carlos was continuing to hammer the Darwin region with strong winds and torrential rain.  The storm was a category 1 cyclone but because it’s centred over too much land it has weakened to a tropical depression this afternoon NZT.  It is likely to remain hovering over the region for a number of day but Australia’s Bureau of Meteorlogy (BoM) says it will return to category 1 cyclone status on Saturday. says Carlos will hug the western coastline and it may intensify to a category 2 storm if it pushes off shore a little on Sunday or Monday.

Yesterday Weatherzone reportered that Carlos had made for Darwin’s wettest ever 48 hours and authorities now say just 300mm more rain before April will make for the wettest ever “wet season” on record.

Further west of Australia and Tropical Cyclone Dianne has re-ignited, also a category 1 cyclone.   Dianne, however, is larger and without land causing her to weaken she is predicted to become a category 3 storm tomorrow evening NZT.

Dianne may eventually impact Perth but at this stage it’s too far out to be sure, but long range modelling shows a likely hit, as an ex-tropical cyclone, on Monday.

Meanwhile north of New Zealand and thunderstorms are now starting to spiral into a tropical low between Vanuatu and Fiji reports  This newly developing low is still predicted by us to turn into a tropical cyclone – possibly a severe category 4 storm – during the weekend. 

Latest data shows that while this future cyclone is unlikely to directly hit New Zealand is may still bring in rough seas.  Some computer models are now picking some wind may also affect north eastern New Zealand around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week with the Chatham Islands possibly taking a near hit by then former cyclone. says the tropics are now running on all cylinders as the cyclone season peaks.

Our next detailed report on this developing system north of New Zealand will be on Friday commencing the start of daily updates.



Ex-Cyclone Carlos future track – showing the storm doing a loop

Cyclone Dianne’s future track shows her becoming a Cat 3 storm, according to BoM

Blue dots indicate thunderstorms – the thunderstorms north of NZ are going to start a cyclonic spin which form a new tropical depression today and likely become a cyclone by the weekend.  Image / University of Washington


Guest Peter on 18/02/2011 10:24pm

I agree with all previous correspondents. The wide view helps us to more fully appreciate how weather systems are dynamically interactive and not just some piece of a jigsaw puzzle being shunted from one point to another on the surface of the Earth.
I urge TVNZ , TV3, Prime and other media weather presenters to adopt this more holistic approach. We, the viewing public demand a more intelligent approach.
I believe the commercialisation of weather presentation(fitted into narrow and constricting timeslots between advertisements, and the competition for viewer numbers between TV Channels) has brought about a bastardised approach the presentation of the facts. i.e. glib emotive statements; rushed verbal and picture presentations; insufficient use of satellite pic technology – inadequate coverage or explanation – often missing on Prime.
I don’t believe that the presenters – most of whom have little or scant knowledge of the science of Meteorology can do justice to the subject.(In the case of Karen and Jim on TV1 – they are fitting in to a formulaic presentation that simply does not work)
The solution in my opinion is quite simple – hand weather presentation back to the expert organisation. i.e. The New Zealand Meteorolgical Service.
Let the dicussion begin!!!

Guest Steve on 17/02/2011 7:50am

The fantastic thing about maps showing the whole region of the South West Pacific is that you can see where our weather is coming from. The limited view we receive on TV weather reports I feel is very narrow as it only shows the effects on NZ. It is so much more interesting getting the “Big Picture”. The graphics, satellite images and explanations WW shows really increases our knowledge of the world around us.
Thanks so much to all the team.


WW Forecast Team on 17/02/2011 9:50am

Hi Steve – we couldn’t agree more and wouldn’t be surprised if TV1 or 3 ended up following our idea of showing more than NZ.  Our weather is heavily dominated by the Southern Ocean and sometimes the tropics – we need to see the whole picture.  Country99TV exclusively use the ECMWF maps too, which shows what’s coming as far west as the Indian Ocean.  You’d be surprised how often a tropical low in Darwin drops down past Perth and ends up in the mix of the Southern Ocean coming towards the South Island.

Thanks for the feedback!

Philip Duncan

Vicki on 17/02/2011 12:39am

Philip, this is great – all the maps and info you’ve been posting this summer. I’ve learnt so much from w.w. about the birth and growth of our weather systems, that I’m starting to turn into a bit of a weather-addict! 🙂

WW Forecast Team on 17/02/2011 1:38am

Hi Vicki – thanks for that!  And we have some neat new maps and graphics that we’re working on for the near future – hopefully in time for the rough weather from winter.


Phil and the team

p.s  Being a weather addict is at least a healthy addiction!

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