La Nina is fading but atmospheric conditions haven’t changed too much, meaning it’s hard to notice this development.
The general outlook for February is one of change – not stuck so much in the same pattern but a mixture of lows and highs bringing variety in our weather.
Northern areas will have a chance to have some drier weather – even though the monthly and long range outlook suggests rainfall will continue to be normal to above normal.
The West Coast of the South Island is still leaning drier generally speaking – but the first half of February may be very wet and end any concerns about drought, with up to 300mm forecast.
Canterbury and the lower North Island remain drier than average.
Extra cloud cover in northern NZ may put a slight lid on daytime highs, but overnight lows remain warmer than usual. The lower South Island is expected to be warmer than average leading into Autumn.
Put simply, a chaotic/changeable weather pattern carries on bringing periods of settled weather to NZ but also rainmakers from varying directions.
The tropics doesn’t look overly active for now – but storms can form quite quickly there at this time of year. We’re now entering what is traditionally the peak of the cyclone season over Feb and March.