It appears in models that on the 4th of February a front and low combination will move over New Zealand from the Tasman Sea.
Rain looks like it will be heaviest out west and out east showers are more likely, this is in consideration to both the North and South Islands. This will bring some relief to the current dry conditions although it would be better if it lasted longer.
Hot on it’s heels is what looks like another anticyclone pushing in from the Tasman Sea. The South Island unfortunately is looking fairly dry with this high and so is most of the North Island however an easterly airflow around the top of the high may deliver a few showers from Gisborne northwards from time to time.
For the most part it has been a very good summer but this is starting to become too much of a good thing. The pattern will change at some point and most will be looking forward to when it does.
A slight hint in long range models at mid February for some frontal action to bring a bit more substantial relief to eastern areas so lets see how that turns out.
Homepage image / Monday 4th February 1pm rain map – weathermap.co.nz