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Autumn outlook released by Govt forecaster

Metservice have just released their thoughts about our Autumn season and what they believe we are likely to see over the next 2-3 months for our big cities and surrounding areas.

Auckland
RAIN: returning to about to above normal, after a dry month last month.
WIND: periods of easterly. 
TEMPERATURE: continuing above normal. 
SUNSHINE: continuing about to below normal. 
SPECIALS: thunderstorms. 
CONFIDENCE: moderate. 
Chances are still good for some extended dry spells from passing anticyclones.There will be a few showery days with cold fronts arriving from the Tasman Sea,and some of these may be thundery. Be on the lookout for low pressure systems arriving from the north or from the Tasman Sea, as these are the most likely candidates for wet windy days during the rest of autumn.

Hamilton
RAIN: returning to normal during this month and then about to above normal. 
WIND: lighter than normal. 
TEMPERATURE: continuing about to above normal. 
SUNSHINE: about normal. 
SPECIALS: misty mornings. 
CONFIDENCE: low to moderate. 
Several periods of dry settled autumnal weather are likely with passing anticyclones, and these may also bring misty mornings. There is likely to be a noticeable increase in the number of showery days with cold fronts arriving from the Tasman Sea. The main rain events will most likely be associated with low-pressure systems approaching from the north or northwest.

Tauranga
RAIN: about to above normal. 
WIND: periods of easterly. 
TEMPERATURE: about to above normal. 
SUNSHINE: about to below normal. 
SPECIALS: thunderstorms. 
CONFIDENCE: moderate. 
A few passing anticyclones are likely to bring periods of settled weather, but also some damp autumnal mornings with mist and dew. The troughs that arrive between these anticyclones are expected to become increasingly noticeable,bringing showery periods and some thunderstorms. Be on the lookout for any low-pressure systems approaching from the subtropics, for these may bring a day or so of heavy rain and strong wind.

Wellington
RAIN: returning to normal this month then about to above normal. 
WIND: frontal northwesterlies and southerlies. 
TEMPERATURE: about normal in March then may be above normal. 
SUNSHINE: about normal. 
SPECIALS: changing pattern. 
CONFIDENCE: low to moderate. 
Passing anticyclones brought an extended period of dry weather during February,but should become weaker during autumn. Fronts arriving from the Tasman Sea are expected to become more noticeable with rain and wind events increasing in intensity.


Christchurch and Dunedin
RAIN: continuing about normal, after a wet February in parts.
WIND: northeasterlies and southwesterlies. 
TEMPERATURE: becoming about to above normal after an early start to autumn. 
SUNSHINE: continuing about normal. 
SPECIALS: squally southerly changes. 
CONFIDENCE: moderate. Be on the lookout for low pressure systems approaching central New Zealand from the Tasman Sea, for these have a good chance of bringing dumps of heavy rain.Frontal systems are likely to bring brief south or southwest wind changes with showers and a few squalls. Some passing anticyclones are expected to bring periods of settled weather with cloudy conditions and northeast winds. 

Comments

Glenn on 9/03/2011 11:28pm

Just like the TV weather…Tauranga gets a mention while the entire West Coast of both islands gets left out once again..

WW Forecast Team on 9/03/2011 11:39pm

Hi Glenn – we’d expect cloudier and generally cooler weather for the west coast of both islands.  In particular the South Island’s West Coast can expect more fronts and more westerlies.  Rainfall should be normal to about Taranaki then drier than normal towards Waikato and Northland – this is our prediction.

Regards

WeatherWatch team

Christopher on 9/03/2011 8:37pm

And what is your take on this?

WW Forecast Team on 9/03/2011 10:26pm

We think that March will now be drier than normal for many areas due to so many anticyclones.  We also think thunderstorm activity will be lower because of these continuous highs – although the added cold air may help make some afternoon build ups from time to time.

Most regions are already drier than they should be for March and our long range forecasts show no real change in the next 10 to 14 days.

– WeatherWatch

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