It’s not every day that the long range forecast for Alice Springs in central Australia shows much more rain than parts of New Zealand but that is the case for the remainder of March.
The reason Australia’s deserts are about to get more rain than most of NZ’s normally lush green North Island is due to a couple of cyclones and a cold front next week there, as NZ remains under high pressure.
Currently Severe Cyclone Trevor is about to make landfall in very northern Queensland. In the days ahead this low will regenerate out over the Gulf of Carpentaria and may grow into a severe Category 4 cyclone before curving southwards and going inland towards Alice Springs. It will then fall apart but not before it dumps a lot of rain. Meanwhile a newly developing cyclone in western Australia may also end up curving inland and bringing rain to other western deserts.
In a nut shell it’s possible that Alice Springs (or nearby) will have as much as 100mm, possibly 150mm, over the rest of March, contrast that with New Zealand’s North Island that looks set to generally only get about 1 to 20mm. There may be some big downpours in New Zealand this week and weekend which locally may produce higher totals over the next week but generally speaking the North Island and eastern South Island look fairly dry for the rest of the month.
A cold front next week will add more rain to southern deserts in Australia and will also bring big totals to NZ’s West Coast.