HI there, very good question.  At this stage it looks as though more of this netural pattern (ie, no La Nina,  no el Nino).  In my view this makes it more difficult to predict – it’s more vulnerable to the chaotic spring pattern and where that leaves the placement of air pressure systems as we head into summer when the weather patterns can often be "locked in place" for a number of months.  As always the area that can give the north hope each and every dry summer, is the chance of a tropical rain maker coming down.  We have an average risk this year and last summer started off with a couple ex-cyclones – but sadly nothing when 2013 arrived.  

We’ve been predicting since late winter, that if the weather pattern didn’t change (ie, we didn’t get La Nina or El Nino developing) that we’d likely be at an incerased risk of a hot, drier than average, summer.  The pattern this year is similar to last year – the next couple months will be crucial to watch with perhaps a more heightened awareness this time around about the risks for drought.

Through my work at CountryTV we’re already putting a special spotlight on the dry areas that are developing – to ensure we’re tracking what is normal and what is becoming a serious developingfconcern.  Not at a serious stage yet, but certainly a day of solid rain is needed within the next couple of weeks to keep things healthy.

Cheers

Phil.