– updated
Warmth has returned to many regions this morning thanks to a slight change in wind direction.
At 8am many centres in the South Island were already in the 20s, although a cool nor’easter had Christchurch on 11 degrees while both Kaikoura and Timaru on either side are were in the low 20s.
By late this morning the mercury was soaring with the westerly change and Christchurch, along with a number of eastern centres, had already reached 24 degrees.
Gale force westerlies continue to affect Invercargill with gusts up to 85km/h while the islands south of New Zealand (Enderby and Campbell) are reporting gale force winds gusting to 140km/h. The strong winds south of New Zealand are due to a very widespread area of low pressure – a sign that the settled nature of Summer is now over.
Meanwhile a big high in the Tasman should bring another dry week ahead for Northland and Auckland.
The high may also keep Tropical Cyclone Ului away from New Zealand. The monster cyclone has exploded overnight with more power and is headed towards the Solomon Islands.
On the WeatherWatch.co.nz satellite map on the right hand side of this page you can see the bottom sections of both tropical cyclones (Ului on the top left and Tomas on the top right).
WeatherWatch believes any risk to New Zealand will be from next weekend onwards.
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SW on 13/03/2010 7:21pm
Solomon Island ones often eventually come this way though can take over a week after curving near Australia.
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WW Forecast Team on 13/03/2010 8:34pm
Correct – that’s why we’re flagging it as possible concern after next weekend. All depends on that Tasman Sea high.
– WeatherWatch
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Andrew on 13/03/2010 9:50pm
It looks like the high is going to weaken and move to the East of NZ on Sunday…. Is it possible it could come down this far and affect our weather early into the week say Monday or early Tuesday????? The maps make that option look possible…..
Andrew
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WW Forecast Team on 13/03/2010 9:59pm
Hi Andrew,
Yes that high is expected to weaken next Sunday (1 week away)… a that stage the low could do one of three things…either fizzle out…, move west into Australia and die….or drift south into the Tasman Sea.
We’ll be watching the GFS models very closely with this one although it’s worth noting the current 10 day weather forecast for Auckland shows dry weather right through until early next week.
– WeatherWatch
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Guest on 13/03/2010 11:09pm
Is it possible that these 2 cyclones could join together an become one big massive system ? ive never seen 2 cyclones quite so close together before, one of them will be pinching all the water from the other one wouldnt they ? Either way with 2 cyclones drifting out there an computor models not really sure whats gonna happen it sounds like we could be affected by at least one of them , i know we got that big high in the way at present but yea if it does weaken without know southerly air stream to affect its growth from shrinking it could be abit of a boomer storm . Guess will have to wait an see . One other thing phil the storm wellington got friday was unreal never seen the clouds become so alive like that before its great theres lots of utube footage of it so you didnt miss out on the action .It reminderd me of something you only see in the movies .
cheers Daniel
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WW Forecast Team on 14/03/2010 4:32am
Hi Daniel,
No it’s not possible as they are actually quite a big distance apart and travelling in different directions. Tomas is soon going to move south and then south east while Ului is currently moving west.
And while on our satellite map here they look as though they are almost touching they are, in reality, a very long way apart. The centres are about the width of Australia apart.
I think Ului may affect us…only a very slight chance as this stage but as next week goes on that chance might increase. As you said, all depends on that big high.
Tomas should scoot away well to the east of NZ – may bring in some bigger seas to the North Island’s far east coast (Gizzy and Hawkes Bay).
Cheers
Phil
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