Cyclone Victor has weakened even further overnight as it runs into higher air pressure around New Zealand. The low will continue to track towards New Zealand, then will slide down the North Island’s east coast on Wednesday and Thursday where it will finally unravel.
“The gales of VICTOR are tonight unwinding as the cyclone slowly unravels and dances around Nuku’alofa” wrote New Zealand meteorologist Bob McDavitt last night in a special sailing update for the South Pacific. “VICTOR started to move to the southwest, getting closer to the equator-ward entrance region of the Jetstream â€” a place favorable for further formation and surface pressure fall. However tonight [last night] VICTOR has gone too far to the southwest and is now encountering the increasing shear of the Jetstream, so will â€œhave its top knocked offâ€.
Generally speaking Victor poses little threat to New Zealand – but there are some risks as ex-cyclones can sometimes regenerate a little around New Zealand – so all holidaymakers and beachgoers in the North Island should be aware of this, even though the risks – generally – aren’t very widespread based on modelling this week and again today.
VICTOR’S POTENTIAL NZ RISKS:
SWELLS, RIPS, CURRENTS
The biggest risk to life from Victor will most likely come from dangerous rips, hidden currents and occasional large waves in some beaches. Especially around eastern Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty, East Cape, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa. Great news for surfers – but for kids and those who perhaps aren’t the strongest swimmers, just be aware even if the weather isn’t too bad on the beach, there may be some dangerous conditions in the water – sometimes invisible to see.
As with any tropical low the humidity in summer can make for very heavy downpours. While the bulk of Victor’s rain will be out at sea there’s some chance of heavy downpours in the east – but it’s too early to lock in. East Cape, Gisborne and Hawkes Bay would be the highest candidates for some heavy rain.
Mostly all off shore, but a chance the remnants of Victor may make for a blustery day around Wednesday or Thursday, again in Gisborne or Hawkes Bay most likely – and the further east you are the windier it may be.
Most models maintain Victor won’t bring much in the way severe weather around New Zealand – but sometimes even a very small tropical low can reform and reenergise around the North Island in particular. As we’ve been saying all week – any tropical low coming towards us is worth monitoring on a daily basis, so check WeatherWatch.co.nz for daily updates – and MetService.com for any possible future warnings or watches.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s final update on Victor this morning: