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Tropics still active, but dry weather looms here

Ex-cyclone Lusi didn’t deliver enough rain to the country – but what fell was certainly welcomed by farmers desperate to avoid another drought this Autumn.

Lusi may have dumped big rainfall totals into some northern areas, but for a big dairy region like Waikato – or further south, Manawatu – a lot more rain is needed.  Hamilton only recorded 3 or 4mm from Lusi.

There has been some talk by other forecasters about a future cyclone – today we took a good look at the data and while some models (mainly the American GFS ones) indicate a strong cyclone forming they don’t agree on it’s strength or path.

Other models indicate the highs over New Zealand will win out and this future low poses no threat.

Our feeling is that this likely cyclone is far too east of New Zealand to bring much needed rain to dry western parts of New Zealand. We give it a “low” risk of reaching New Zealand with rain at this stage – but as you’ve seen over the weekend, we can track tropical storms to a certain degree but they have a mind of their own almost. One to watch – but not one to raise your hopes up for if you need rain.

Instead our focus at WeatherWatch remains on areas directly north and north west of the country for our next big rain maker – but with looming highs we may not see much rain in northern New Zealand for the rest of March, backing up a forecast made by in February.

With Lusi failing to please everyone, it means more demand for rain. will continue to monitor the data and bring you our rainfall predictions as soon as we have them but suggests significant rain may not be in the forecast for some dry parts of the North Island until as late as April.

– Homepage image / File, Garith Farr



Derek on 18/03/2014 2:54am

Weather here now in Whangarei is like summer should have been, very warm, sunny days and warm nights and little wind with no cold south westerlies. I see from your forecast here that there are plenty of highs around so maybe march will be our summer month.

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