Typical La Nina weather events are starting to form as we officially start Summer and the tropics right above New Zealand is about to roar into life with a potential tropical cyclone this week.
“Having warmer than usual waters in our part of the Pacific (La Nina) is like putting a petrol tanker next to a bomb fire – it’s a recipe for weather events to explode” says TRN’s head weather analyst Philip Duncan.
Duncan says there are two tropical weather features to keep an eye out for this week: A sub tropical low moving our way and a potential Tropical Cyclone that could take a direct hit on Fiji.
“A small low will drift out of the Coral sea towards New Zealand this week. While it’s not an aggressive system it is likely to mean a week of humid conditions over northern New Zealand with rain likely later in the week and overnight lows around the 15 or 16 degree mark from Waikato northwards thanks to a humid easterly that will build later in the week”.
“The second feature is a weather bomb that is expected to explode north of Fiji later this week. Current computer models show a low that is expected to rapidly deepen within 48 hours and could turn into a Tropical Cyclone”.
Duncan says Fiji has an increased chance of a direct hit tropical cyclone this season, along with Samoa and any places between Australia and the International Dateline.
“While NIWA says New Zealand has an average risk of a cyclone this year, I’d say the La Nina weather set up means northern regions, including drought stricken farms in Gisborne and northern Hawke’s Bay, should mean an increased risk of significant weather events this Summer”.