WeatherWatch.co.nz has been monitoring the long range computer models and for three days in a row they have been predicting a tropical low moving down towards New Zealand later next week.
The low, which is likely to form around Vanuatu and New Caledonia this weekend, will next week start to drift southwards, according to the long range maps.
WeatherWatch.co.nz head weather analyst Philip Duncan says that while it’s too early to say how much rain we’ll get, it is a promising sign to see these lows forming. “These are the sorts of lows that a La Nina summer produces. After an exceptionally dry spring we are now seeing more and more rain events forming around the country…it’s just a matter of when one will move over us”.
But Mr Duncan does acknowledge there are no guarantees of persistent rain. “The three computer sweeps by two reliable offshore organisations both show this low forming and drifting our way however there remains uncertainty about its exact path, with one model showing it will move over Northland, Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula around Thursday next week, the other showing it will drift south east past East Cape – delivering little rain to Northland”.
WeatherWatch.co.nz says those relying on rain moving in should keep an eye on the skies north of New Zealand.
For the past two months there has been little activity between New Caledonia and Fiji but in the past week there appears to be a change with more tropical activity.
on 25/11/2010 3:00am
Not sure what models you are running but the US Navy, MetService and MetView all show low levels of activity in the Coral sea – Fiji areas with no systems developing or comming our way yet. 3 days is a long time in meterology, 7 is guess work in a La Nina flux pattern: order a water tanker today as you may be dry by next Thursdsay! AJB.
on 25/11/2010 3:10am
We are looking at ECMWF.
From what I gather MetService and MetVuw use GFS mostly (may be wrong about M/S).
As the article says, no guarantees, but it’s the best shot for rain we’ve seen in several weeks.