WeatherWatch.co.nz is predicting a high chance of a tropical cyclone forming directly north of New Zealand within 48 hours, as a tropical depression continues to deepen.
Tropical Depression TD03F is currently lying over warm waters between Vanuatu and New Caledonia and conditions are favourable for it to become a tropical cyclone – with New Caledonia likely to take a direct hit.
The long range models are also predicting three possible paths, all of which take this future tropical cyclone towards New Zealand.
Head weather analyst Philip Duncan says those in the North Island should be aware that the storm is developing and may have an impact on the upper half of New Zealand. “We still have no clear path on where this tropical storm will track but the North Island does look as though it will be in its sights”.
“A direct hit to New Zealand is not out of the question”.
“One model shows the low drifting across the North Island from the Taranaki region, while the other two models favour a Northland or East Cape strike. It’s possible there’s a fourth option where the low is pushed further east of the country, but either way it’s something we should be aware of”.
Mr Duncan says heavy rain appears to be the main feature with this low, which may bring much needed rain to dry parts of the North Island but potentially a wet and windy time for campers in Northland and Coromandel Peninsula.
“The low is likely to start impacting New Zealand at the weekend. It’s too early to be sure of its exact path so we advise people to keep up to date with WeatherWatch.co.nz news updates over the coming days”.
WeatherWatch.co.nz says there is a “moderate” chance of the low having an impact on New Zealand but that it’s still too early to say if it will bring “severe conditions” to the country.
on 23/03/2011 10:10pm
Who gets to decide on names for Cyclones?
How about.. Cyclone Saskia..has a nice ring to it :p
on 11/01/2011 8:59pm
How are the models looking today? Are we in for a direct hit? Metservice has nothing heavier than showers for the Waikato during the next 10days. I hope we see more than that, things are starting to look a bit bleak here again.
on 11/01/2011 10:15pm
Hi there – we’re still about another 24 to 36 hours off being able to give a more precise forecast. We are 60% confident the low will make it to NZ but only 20% confident of it bringing "severe" weather. We will have another update later today.
on 11/01/2011 10:23am
OMG thats my Birthday ruined? just like 199t7 🙁 (Cyclones fergus and drena ruined my birthday celebrations in the coramandel 🙁 ) much more drena than fergus
on 11/01/2011 9:54am
Typical, heading up to Matauri Bay on Sunday for our 2 week camping holiday! Will be keeping an eager eye on this site for updates.
on 11/01/2011 9:45am
Yes. It looks likely to move over NZ with some subsequent weather events for some areas. Hope it is not as bad, rain wize, as what those poor people in Queensland are experiencing.