As exclusively predicted last week by WeatherWatch.co.nz a tropical cyclone has formed directly north of New Zealand this afternoon, to the west of Fiji.
The Fiji Meteorological Service has named the storm “Daphne” and while it will bring yet more torrential rain and strong wind to Fiji, Daphne has her sights set on New Zealand.
Daphne is still developing, with a central air pressure of 995hPa.
Tropical Cyclone Daphne is currently a category 1 tropical cyclone with sustained gales near the centre and gusts estimated at close to 100km/h.
However the storm is going to track south and become absorbed with the one or two low pressure systems currently just to the north of New Zealand.
While the merging of lows sounds ominous, WeatherWatch.co.nz says it will simply mean the energy will be spread further, which can sometimes reduce the severity but prolong the period of unsettled weather.
As soon as we have more information we’ll bring it to you.
on 2/04/2012 7:19am
um think you said it would be in the weekend and be a severe cyclone by monday, think you thought it would be the fiji rain maker that would be a cyclone not this new one.
on 2/04/2012 7:34am
We said it was likely to grow into a severe cyclone based on those models at the time, yes, but the development of two other less intense lows has now limited the chances of Daphne becoming severe – tropical storm intensities can be incredibly hard to predict, even when the tropical storm has formed, in any ocean. So you make predictions based on current sea temps, anticyclones etc.
We said the first low would cause the flooding for Fiji – and that it could become a cyclone – but it only had a 20% chance of becoming one, pointing out specifically that even if it didn’t make it into a cyclone it had high potential for flooding. The second (more liklely) cyclone (Daphne) we said was less likely to hit Fiji.