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Sub-tropical storm on the way; warnings issued

A sub-tropical low looks set to bring a windy, wet, few days to northern parts of New Zealand arriving in Northland on Saturday and reaching Hawkes Bay early next week.

The low was predicted earlier this week by computer models used by the Weather Watch Centre and in the past 48 hours the models have shown a dramatic deepening and a change to it’s path – taking the storm’s strongest winds right over northern New Zealand.

MetService has now issued severe weather warnings for northern New Zealand predicting heavy rain and winds up to 140km/h. head weather analyst Philip Duncan says earlier in the week the low looked as though it would travel well east of New Zealand but recent data updates show it will now slide near Northland and East Cape.  “It has the potential to be a nasty system with damage quite likely in places like Northland, eastern Waikato and East Cape”.

See all the warnings here.

Mr Duncan says the strongest winds will arrive on Sunday morning for most places.  “The winds will be from the east then the south east, driving heavy rain into places that face those directions.  If there are hills to the west that will increase rainfall amounts as the rain clouds build up on the eastern side”.

In MetService’s severe weather outlook on Thursday afternoon they predicted a “high chance” of heavy rain and severe gales across Northland this Saturday and Sunday and for Sunday and Monday across eastern parts of East Cape including Gisborne – a region hit by flooding just last week.  They have “moderate confidence” of heavy rain and severe gales for Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula and Tauranga this weekend and a “moderate” chance of heavy rain for Hawkes Bay on Sunday and Monday.


SW on 10/07/2009 3:44am

Thers not “enough” Northerly component in it to bring lightning etc as its too far north plus its the cold sector,lots of rain in the east but it will stay rather cold.
Will be good the day the forecasters get it wrong ahead ie say it will be unsettled and it turns out sunny and warm though

Whangarei on 10/07/2009 2:44am

Oh great, I love a good storm. Bring it on, I say! Hopefully Whangarei will get to see some dramatic weather ?

CHDAVISNZ on 10/07/2009 2:41am

Indeed, and may I add that this is very inconvenient.Philip Duncan (smile).. I mean… the satellite images of the system are impressive, yes – but, here in the Far North we are still getting over that blasted (possible) Tornado last weekend.

Well, off topic, but when will the sun come out and dry things again after this event has done what it has done and moved on?

Anyway, great website, keep up the good work.

Theresa on 10/07/2009 12:58am

Do you think there is any chance thunder & lightning in Auckland

WW Forecast Team on 10/07/2009 1:50am

A pretty low chance at this stage.


Andrew on 10/07/2009 12:37am

were a hardy bunch under this big mountain and used to such excitement. Bring it on I say, didn’t have much planned for the weekend but looking forward to it now. After last years hammering this will be a walk in the park! lol

Sam on 9/07/2009 9:11pm

Looks like 17 July late year all over again for Te Aroha and environs!

Te Aroha on 9/07/2009 8:48am

So i guess we are in for a nasty weekend with those winds comming ESE i will keep you updated if it gets rough

Guest on 9/07/2009 7:55am

Could this low interact with the predict polar southerly predicted to sweep north over NZ during the weekend? It it does, could we see the 2 systems hitting each other and intensifying the rain and gales in the east of the North Island, and bringing snow to unusually low levels?

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