Most of New Zealand will have a dry Wednesday but, happily, people in some of the places where rain is most needed will have something to shout about.
A stubborn and shallow trough of low pressure west of Northland is expected to linger there all day today, driving a damp east to northeast flow and rain or heavy showers across Northland, Auckland, Coromandel, and parts of the Waikato from about Hamilton north.
The rest of the country will be sitting in a ridge of high pressure with no rain in sight, perhaps just a few cloudy areas in the afternoon around the coastal fringes and once you head towards that northern rain band.
Even within the rain zone, totals won’t be massive – more a useful contribution towards what looks likely to be a rather wet rest of the week and weekend.
By 6am Thursday, much of the Waikato should have had between 2mm and 5mm of rain.
However, the Coromandel and eastern parts of Auckland and Northland, more exposed to the incoming moist easterlies, could have had 15mm, possibly even 20mm, by that time.
Showers on Thursday could bring another 5mm to 10mm of rain in places.
As long as that low-pressure area continues hovering to the west and north of the top of the North Island – through to the weekend at least on current guidance – there’ll be more of that much-needed rain coming.
It may not be anywhere near enough. But it all helps.
For rainfall accumulation maps for 1, 2 and 3 days out please visit our new maps page: https://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/maps-radars/rain/accumulative-rainfall
By Guest Weather Analyst Paul Gorman – WeatherWatch.co.nz