We’ve passed the half way mark of summer (at least on the calendar) but the hottest, driest, weather is typically over the next 8 weeks.  However El Nino seems to be ‘spluttering’ a bit over the North Island – take today for example, more humid, showery, nor’easters in the top half…it feels more like La Nina (El Nino’s opposite).

Places like Coromandel Peninsula and the Bay of Islands are having too much wet weather for some – at least for those camping.  The good news for campers – drier weather returns tomorrow and over the rest of the week.  For those who live in these areas and rely on rainwater, the wetter weather is probably quite welcome.

The drought in Canterbury remains in force – but even Canterbury has seen some rain this month – and more coming overnight and tomorrow.  This wet weather will also bring moisture into other dry regions such as Otago, Wairarapa and other lower and inland North Island areas.  These areas all need rain – so this is a positive forecast for the most part – even if the heaviest rain isn’t overly widespread in the east.

Waikato was looking very dry in December, and while still fairly dry in places this month, there has been some wet weather over the past few weeks.  The grass is still growing.

We also have a cyclone – another one – well to New Zealanbd’s north east.  While Cyclone Victor is a severe cyclone today it’s likely to miss New Zealand – and most tropical islands.  The Cooks and maybe Tonga have some wind and swell risks over the next few days.  The storm may rush towards NZ this weekend and early next week – but is quite likely to fail to bring any severe weather to the North Island.  We’ll keep an eye on it in case anything changes, but for now the models pick it tracking to our east – the Chatham Islands may be exposed to it, but no more than most stormy systems they receive from the south.

So as we head into the second half of January we see plenty of hot weather, plenty of dry weather – but still a few rain makers crossing the Tasman and forming around New Zealand  The country is not gripped in a nationwide big-dry, as was the fear last year by some – but some areas are desperately dry and rain will be welcome in the next 24 hours.

While this El Nino, globally, is extreme, it’s important to note that WeatherWatch.co.nz has been saying for two years it may not be extreme for all of New Zealand.  For now the focus, just like in December, remains mostly on the very dry eastern parts of the South Island and some lower North Island areas – and hopefully a little more relief comes tonight or tomorrow.  

New Zealand’s geography and location on earth means we can buck the international trends sometimes – which is why each El Nino, or La Nina, behaves differently here.

– By Head weather analyst Philip Duncan.

So, What do you think?  Are you concerned about a ‘creeping big dry’ – or are you feeling optimistic El Nino isn’t so harsh on New Zealand this summer so far?  Post a comment below or discuss via our Facebook or Twitter pages.

– Image / 1pm rain map, Weathermap.co.nz

– WeatherWatch.co.nz