Final Forecast – issued 5:20pm, New Year’s Eve, December 31st, 2008.
By Philip Duncan.
SO…what is happening Tonight?
Wind: Well as we mentioned last week there’s a front approaching from the Tasman Sea but we expect it to fall right apart as it approaches the North Island tonight. A very large low in the Southern Ocean is responsible for it and that low will tonight press against higher air pressure in the north. That’s going to create a ‘squeeze zone’ over the country so strong winds are likely from about Canterbury to Taranaki. Wellington will be especially exposed.
Rain: Rain will move in to western and southern areas…so places like Invercargill, Queenstown and the West Coast will be the wettest places.
Showers: You’ve probably heard the talk of a “wet” New Year’s Eve for the North Island. I think summing up the day’s weather with one word isn’t accurate. It’s certainly not going to be a wet day for most people who are on holiday. Showers are in the forecast for places like Nelson, New Plymouth, Waikato and Auckland…but in our latest weather data this morning the chances of it being dry all day today has gone from 70% to 90%!!
Of course for this evening that percentage drops a little…but really only for places south of about Waikato. Northwards it’s still going to be drier than wetter.
I don’t think they’ll be enough to ruin the day but they could be more of a nuisance for those having a BBQ or enjoying events outdoors…but only if you’re unlucky enough to even get one.
To be honest our rain tracker updates this afternoon will be the most accurate weather information you’ll find for tonight….and in this update there’s still nothing on the radar and certainly nothing significant expected north of Waikato tonight. From Kapiti to Taranaki there’s an increased chance but I think the wind will be more annoying than any showers.
Hot & Dry: Most of our popular party spots should be dry. The Bay of Islands, the eastern Coromandel Peninsula, Mt Maunganui, Gisborne, Napier, Taupo, Marlborough Sounds, all of Canterbury, coastal Otago – they are all looking sunny and hot.
The skies are still mostly clear over New Zealand in this final update.
Rain is still falling across Southland, Queenstown and it’s moving up the West Coast – where there are heavy falls. MetService has issued rain warnings for the West Coast.
The Tasman Sea front, as we predicted, is falling apart as it approaches the North Island however we do still anticipate showers later, especially between Nelson and Taranaki.
Happy New Year!
on 1/01/2009 4:03am
for the Bay of islands, we had sun, glorious sun all day one spit of rain then a warm humid night till we went to bed!
Happy new year!
on 31/12/2008 3:42am
Clouds building from midday and now drizzle started here in the inner Pelorus Sound ‚Äì Marlborough.
We just missed the 26c mark yesterday and again this morning missed the 26c by approx half a degree. Now 19.8c (@ 4,30pm)
Looks like tonight might be a bit damp for outside entertainment. Tomorrow is looking good again but Friday night and Saturday until late afternoon looking like another heavy burst of rain for us.
Happy New Year Phil ‚Äì nice work from you for 2008
on 29/12/2008 7:17pm
We can only hope Auckland will clear to some degree,Been away from Xmas eve till yesterday in the lower NI and been summer there but not Auckland Wet on the day leaving and again yesterday.
on 29/12/2008 9:58am
Here’s a link to some interesting photos from Antarctica.
Some interesting cloud formations amongst other things.
on 29/12/2008 3:14am
Here In Whangarei we have had mainly drizzle type rain all day with just the occasional period of heavier rain and wind from the SE in exposed places.
Very mild, around the 20’s, but humidity is way up, unlike last week when the rain brought cold weather with it. Cloud maybe thinning out as it is starting to look a bit brighter out there now. Or I hope it is?
Been looking at a sattelite map of the weather for the Pacific area and what a mess out there, not looking much like settled weather for awhile. Poor NZ looks stuck in the middle of it all.
on 28/12/2008 7:19pm
Its just a typical and (often boring) summer in Auckland enough rain or showers,lots of Wind,temperatures nothing higher than average.
on 28/12/2008 8:49am
The last low we had gave the shore a good 60mm of rain.
How much do you think we may get in this low?
Its a hot night here in Northcote its 18.5C at 9.50pm
on 28/12/2008 6:50pm
This low is centred further east than last weeks one…that means Gisborne and eastern Bay of Plenty are going to be closer to that 50mm figure. In Auckland I’d say we’ll probably be going for 15 to 25mm. I’m pretty confident it’ll be lower…and south west Auckland may get even less than that.
8:10am Edit: Just looking at the latest data…. Auckland may only get 10mms from this. It’s really just overcast with showers or drizzle for much of today. The rain seems to likely only affect Coromandel, Eastern BoP and East Cape.
on 27/12/2008 11:46pm
Hey Philip, are we going to get anything for the Gisborne Flats? We got 14mm out of the last sytem(at Ormond, about 10 miles inland from Gizzy). Lets see our good you are – how many mls(if any) total for the current system? We need at least 50mm but will take anything!!
on 28/12/2008 5:36am
Hi Geoff – that’s a bit of a tough one… I think this low is in a slightly (and I do mean slightly) better position than the last one for rain in Gisborne. However the low doesn’t seem to be as intense – so I don’t think rainfall figures will be as high. May be a repeat of similar rainfall levels from last time…possibly a bit heavier..I’m guessing for you between 15 and 40mm. Quite a wide range I know…but there’s a fine line between you getting a good solid drenching or just get a brief period of rain like last week.
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