A large high pressure system – the first one in weeks to cover all of New Zealand – is still forecast to cross the nation next week, but it will have to wait patiently for a day or two while spring lingers.
A spring storm in the Southern Ocean today will continue to brush New Zealand with wind and rain, mostly South Island focused. Over the next few days this low will slowly track past south of the country but may take until early next week to fully clear – at the same time as our high rolls in.
So Monday December 1st looks a bit more like the start of November with windy south to south west winds and showers around both islands, mostly south of Waikato / Lake Taupo.
By Tuesday the high in the Tasman will be pushing in. Most of New Zealand will be calmer and dry but showers may remain around the Gisborne area.
By Wednesday the high is over all of the country – conditions should be mainly dry and calm but there will be cloudy areas. The risk of a shower, nationally, is around 20% or 10%.
However on Thursday the high gets a puncture over the South Island’s West Coast – more rain with isolated heavy falls will move in there. Most other places remain dry and calm but a sou’easter around the South Island’s east coast may bring in cloud and isolated showers.
That rain band looks like it will try to climb into the North Island, around Taranaki – but the high over the North Island looks set to push back on Friday – leaving the risk for rain over the West Coast of the South Island and just a few showers elsewhere.
WeatherWatch.co.nz forecasters say the long range trend for the next couple of weeks shows increasing long, dry, hot and calm spells for northern New Zealand but regular rain events for the South Island’s West Coast – which will have some impact on neighbouring regions.
Farmers in need of decent rain in Auckland, Northland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty may have to wait until Dec 10th (nearly two full weeks away) for a solid rain band to set in over the upper North Island. There are some shower risks during that time – and a few may be large – but generally high pressure is dominating the skies of northern New Zealand now as we head in towards what may be quite a dry, hot, start to summer for some regions in the north and east of both islands.