Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology issued its latest update on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Tuesday, confirming La Niña conditions are no longer present in either the Pacific Ocean or atmosphere.
The Bureau’s ENSO Wrap Up analyses a range of climate drivers that determine the long term seasonal outlook for the Australian region, with this update confirming conditions have returned to neutral (neither El Niño or La Niña).
The 2011-2012 La Niña began last spring, and played a key role in prolonged wet conditions for eastern Australian throughout summer and into early autumn.
Southeast Australia recorded its wettest 7-day period in history, and the combined effect of two back-to-back La Niña events contributed to Australia’s wettest two-year period on record.
Bureau of Meteorology Manager of Climate Prediction Services, Dr Andrew Watkins, said:
“While this La Niña may be over, we still need to be cautious. The oceans around Australia remain warmer than normal, and the tropical wet season is expected to remain active until the end of April, bringing with it the possibility of tropical cyclones and further heavy rain.
“The likelihood of a third successive La Niña remains low, with none of the models used by the Bureau indicating a return. Approximately 70% of La Niña events that have returned for a second year are followed by neutral or El Niño conditions.”
For further information on the latest ENSO Wrap Up go to: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
– BOM press release