A ridge brings a period of settled weather for New Zealand today, however not for long as a cold front pushes onto the lower South Island later in the afternoon then moves northwards overnight. A large high sits in the Tasman Sea on Thursday directing a cold southwestely airflow over New Zealand, a front within this flow moves over the North Island during the morning. Skies are potentially unstable behind this front in the afternoon.

Mostly sunny for the upper North Island today, there may be a few clearing morning showers for Northland. Morning showers clear Hawkes Bay / Gisborne then sun increases. Mostly sunny in the west Taranaki southwards then cloud increases in the evening, rain moves in overnight. Mostly sunny for a majority of the South Island with developing high cloud, morning frosts are possible especially for inland areas. Rain moves into Fiordland early afternoon then pushes northwards in the evening. Rain moves into Southland late afternoon, Otago in the evening then Canterbury overnight with snow to 500m for a time with gusty southwest winds, strong about the coast.

Showers or rain will affect most parts of the North Island on Thursday, there is the risk of a thunderstorm and some hail in the afternoon about the Waikato and Bay Of Plenty then easing in the evening. Some snow to 700m about the Central Plateau and along the ranges of the east coast, early snow possible to 600m about Marlborough and Wellington. The South Island has a mixed bag of showers and sunny spells, morning rain about Nelson and Marlborough clears away then showers with a chance of hail and thunder is possible for Nelson in the afternoon before easing evening. Some hail possible in the afternoon for Canterbury also, perhaps the low risk of some thunder too.

By Weather Analyst Aaron Wilkinson – WeatherWatch.co.nz